[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 27 November 16 issued 2330 UT on 27 Nov 2016 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]

Regional Warning Centre rwc at ips.gov.au
Mon Nov 28 10:30:25 EST 2016 

SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/27 NOVEMBER 2016 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 27 NOVEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 28 NOVEMBER - 30 NOVEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 27 Nov:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 27 Nov:  83/24


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             28 Nov             29 Nov             30 Nov
Activity     Low                Low                Low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    84/26              83/24              83/24

COMMENT: Solar activity was Very Low for the UT day, 27 November. 
Expect solar activity to be Low for the next three days with 
a slight chance of an M-class flare. No Earthward directed CMEs 
observed in the available SOHO imagery. Due to the continued 
coronal hole effect, solar wind stream is still enhanced, but 
decreased throughout the UT day from 660 km/s to around 570 km/s. 
Bt remained around 5nT. The Bz component of the IMF ranged between 
-/+ 5nT over the UT day. Solar wind stream is expected to continue 
to weaken over the next three days.

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 27 Nov: Mostly Quiet 
with isolated Unsettled periods

Estimated Indices 27 Nov : A   K           
   Australian Region       5   22222111
      Cocos Island         2   11211010
      Darwin               5   22222002
      Townsville           6   22222112
      Learmonth            8   32322121
      Alice Springs        5   22222012
      Norfolk Island       4   22222001
      Gingin               5   22222111
      Camden               6   22222112
      Canberra             6   22222112
      Launceston           8   23322112
      Hobart               6   23222111    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 27 Nov :
      Macquarie Island     9   23243101
      Casey               21   45533222
      Mawson              33   45533355

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 27 Nov : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin               2   (Quiet)
      Canberra            24   (Quiet to unsettled)
      Melbourne           NA

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 27 Nov : A 
           Fredericksburg        10
           Planetary             10                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 26 Nov :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         9
           Planetary             10   2322 1332     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
28 Nov     8    Quiet to Unsettled
29 Nov     8    Quiet to Unsettled
30 Nov     8    Quiet to Unsettled

COMMENT: Geomagnetic conditions were mostly at Quiet level with 
isolated Unsettled periods over the last 24 hours for the Australian 
region. Similar conditions are expected for 28-30 November.

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
27 Nov      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair    

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
28 Nov      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
29 Nov      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
30 Nov      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair

COMMENT: Mostly normal HF conditions are expected over the next 
24 hours.

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
27 Nov    16

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      No data available. 
   Niue Island Region:
      Depressed by 15% during local day.
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Depressed by 15% over the UT day.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
Oct      10
Nov      26
Dec      25

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
28 Nov    20    Near predicted monthly values
29 Nov    20    Near predicted monthly values
30 Nov    20    Near predicted monthly values

COMMENT: Improved ionospheric support observed today. MUFs were 
mostly near predicted monthly values in all regions. Sporadic-E 
events again observed throughout the region and strong blanketing 
Es that obscured the F-region. Expect continued improvement in 
ionospheric support for the next few days with possible continuing 
Sporadic-E events for Equatorial and Aus/NZ regions.

-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 26 Nov
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   1.7E+06
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.4E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.00E+09   (high fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:30%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: A9.3

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 26 Nov
Speed: 655 km/sec  Density:    2.8 p/cc  Temp:   212000 K  Bz:  -1 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
-----------------------------------------------------------

Space Weather Services              email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386                         WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA       FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010                fax: +61 2 9213 8060 

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