[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 26 November 16 issued 2330 UT on 26 Nov 2016 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sun Nov 27 10:30:31 EST 2016
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/26 NOVEMBER 2016 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 26 NOVEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 27 NOVEMBER - 29 NOVEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: ** YELLOW **
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 26 Nov: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 26 Nov: 81/22
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
27 Nov 28 Nov 29 Nov
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 82/23 82/23 80/20
COMMENT: Solar activity was Very Low for the UT day, 26 November.
Expect solar activity to remain Very Low for the next three days
with a slight chance of C-class flares. No Earthward directed
CMEs observed in the available SOHO imagery. Due to the continued
coronal hole effect, solar wind stream is still going strong,
around 660 Km/s. The Bz component of the IMF ranged between -/+
5nT over the UT day. Solar wind stream is expected to gradually
weaken over the next three days.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 26 Nov: Quiet to Unsettled
Estimated Indices 26 Nov : A K
Australian Region 8 22232222
Cocos Island 5 21122211
Darwin 6 22122221
Townsville 7 22232221
Learmonth 12 32233323
Alice Springs 6 22122221
Norfolk Island 6 22122222
Gingin 9 31232322
Camden 7 32222221
Canberra 7 22132221
Launceston 11 33232322
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 26 Nov :
Macquarie Island 14 23443321
Casey 27 55543323
Mawson 25 34443345
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 26 Nov :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 2 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 2 (Quiet)
Gingin 13 (Quiet)
Canberra 39 (Quiet to unsettled)
Melbourne NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 26 Nov : A
Fredericksburg 9
Planetary 10
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 25 Nov : A K
Fredericksburg 24
Planetary 32 3652 5352
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
27 Nov 12 Quiet to Unsettled with possible Active periods.
28 Nov 10 Quiet to Unsettled
29 Nov 8 Quiet to Unsettled
COMMENT: Geomagnetic conditions ranged from Quiet to Unsettled
levels over the last 24 hours for the Australian region. Predominately
Quiet to Unsettled conditions with possible Active periods forecast
for 27 November, Quiet to unsettled conditions for 28-29 November.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
26 Nov Fair Fair Fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
27 Nov Fair-normal Fair-normal Fair-normal
28 Nov Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal-fair
29 Nov Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal-fair
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
26 Nov 1
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Depressed by 25% during local day.
No data available during local night.
Depressed by 25% after local dawn.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 35% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Depressed by 25% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Depressed by 15% over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Oct 10
Nov 26
Dec 25
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
27 Nov 5 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 15 to
20%
28 Nov 10 Near predicted monthly values
29 Nov 15 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Sporadic-E events again observed throughout the region
and strong blanketing Es that obscured the F-region. MUFs were
mildly depressed in all regions, particularly during the local
day. Continuing Sporadic-E events likely from Equatorial Aus/NZ
regions. Improving ionospheric support expected with possible
MUF depressions due to lack of sunspot activity for the next
few days.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 25 Nov
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 2.3E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.4E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.70E+08 (moderate fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:18%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A9.1
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 25 Nov
Speed: 661 km/sec Density: 2.9 p/cc Temp: 233000 K Bz: -1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
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