[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 25 November 16 issued 2330 UT on 25 Nov 2016 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sat Nov 26 10:30:22 EST 2016
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/25 NOVEMBER 2016 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 25 NOVEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 26 NOVEMBER - 28 NOVEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: ** YELLOW **
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 25 Nov: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 25 Nov: 81/22
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
26 Nov 27 Nov 28 Nov
Activity Very low Very low Very low to low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 82/23 83/24 83/24
COMMENT: Solar activity was Very Low for the UT day, 25 November.
Expect solar activity to remain Very Low for the next three days
with a slight chance of C-class flares. No Earthward directed
CMEs observed in the available SOHO imagery. Due to the continued
coronal hole effect, solar wind stream is still going strong.
Solar wind speed was around 530 km/s at the start of the UT day,
then increased gradually to reach 750km/s ~ 03UT. The wind speed
fluctuated around 680km/s for the remainder of the day. Bt ranged
between 5-10 nT. The Bz component of the IMF ranged between -/+
8nT with a more disturbed period early UT day. Solar wind stream
is expected to remain strong on 26 November and then gradually
weaken over the following two days thereafter.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 25 Nov: Quiet to Active
Estimated Indices 25 Nov : A K
Australian Region 15 34333332
Cocos Island 11 23322241
Darwin 14 24333332
Townsville 15 34333332
Learmonth 14 34323332
Alice Springs 14 34323332
Norfolk Island 15 34334231
Gingin 18 34333343
Camden 18 34434332
Canberra 15 34333332
Launceston 25 35444433
Hobart 17 344331--
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 25 Nov :
Macquarie Island 29 34555432
Casey 38 56544353
Mawson 62 66644573
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 25 Nov :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 18 (Quiet)
Melbourne NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 25 Nov : A
Fredericksburg 23
Planetary 33
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 24 Nov : A K
Fredericksburg 17
Planetary 21 3234 5443
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
26 Nov 15 Unsettled to Active
27 Nov 10 Quiet to Unsettled
28 Nov 8 Quiet to Unsettled
COMMENT: Geomagnetic conditions ranged from Quiet to Active levels
over the last 24 hours with solar wind speed increasing in the
first half of the UT day but with only brief southward Bz periods.
Solar wind speed is expected to remain elevated over the next
24-36 hours due to the continued influence of a high speed solar
wind stream from coronal hole. Predominantly Unsettled conditions
with possible Active periods forecast for 26 November, Quiet
to Unsettled conditions for 27-28 November.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
25 Nov Fair-normal Fair Fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
26 Nov Normal-fair Fair Fair
27 Nov Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal-fair
28 Nov Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: Minor to Moderate MUF depressions are expected over
the next 24 hours due to low levels of ionising radiation and
enhanced geomagnetic activity.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
25 Nov -9
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 30% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 20% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 25% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Depressed by 25% during local day.
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Depressed by 25% over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Oct 10
Nov 26
Dec 25
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
26 Nov -5 15 to 20% below predicted monthly values
27 Nov 5 Depressed 15%/near predicted monthly values
28 Nov 10 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Mild to Moderate MUF depressions were observed for the
UT day,25 November. Current depressions are most likely associated
with low levels of ionising radiation and a rise in geomagnetic
activity resulting in ionospheric storming. Periods of strong
sporadic E observed at most stations. Similar conditions are
expected today, 26 November. Improving ionospheric support expected
for 27-28 November with possible MUF depressions of 10%-20% for
Southern AUS/NZ regions for 27 November.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 24 Nov
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 2.2E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.4E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 9.50E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 2%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A9.0
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 24 Nov
Speed: 496 km/sec Density: 8.5 p/cc Temp: 207000 K Bz: -3 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 fax: +61 2 9213 8060
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