[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 24 November 16 issued 2330 UT on 24 Nov 2016 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Fri Nov 25 10:30:25 EST 2016
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/24 NOVEMBER 2016 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 24 NOVEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 25 NOVEMBER - 27 NOVEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:** YELLOW ** ION: ** YELLOW **
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 24 Nov: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 24 Nov: 79/19
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
25 Nov 26 Nov 27 Nov
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 79/19 79/19 80/20
COMMENT: Solar activity was Very Low for the UT day, 24 November.
Expect solar activity to remain Very Low for the next three days
with a slight chance of C-class flares. A filament eruption was
observed on H-alpha imagery after 1900UT near the limb in the
NW quadrant. A narrow CME, most likely associated with this filament
eruption, was observed in available SOHO LASCO C2 imagery, but
is unlikely to be geoeffective. Solar wind speed was around 410
km/s at the start of the UT day, 24 November, then started to
increase gradually from 430UT to reach around 500 km/s at 515UT.
The wind speed fluctuated between 500-540 km/s for the remainder
of the day. Bt ranged between 5-12 nT. The Bz component of the
IMF ranged between -10nT to 8nT over the UT day, with a prolonged
Southward excursion up to -10nT between 800UT and 1500UT. Solar
wind speed is expected to remain enhanced due to the influence
of a high speed solar wind stream from a large coronal hole with
a highly irregular shape.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 24 Nov: Quiet to Active
with some isolated Minor Storm periods
Estimated Indices 24 Nov : A K
Australian Region 13 22324333
Cocos Island 11 21224332
Darwin 13 22324333
Townsville 17 34324333
Learmonth 18 32335333
Alice Springs 13 22324333
Norfolk Island 11 22323332
Gingin 15 32334333
Camden 13 22324333
Canberra 13 22324333
Launceston 18 22335433
Hobart 16 22334433
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 24 Nov :
Macquarie Island 26 12446532
Casey 24 35543333
Mawson 31 64344335
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 24 Nov :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 6 (Quiet)
Canberra 6 (Quiet)
Melbourne NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 24 Nov : A
Fredericksburg 20
Planetary 26
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 23 Nov : A K
Fredericksburg 11
Planetary 11 4322 2221
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
25 Nov 20 Quiet to Active
26 Nov 15 Quiet to Active
27 Nov 10 Quiet to Unsettled
COMMENT: Geomagnetic conditions were Quiet to Active with some
isolated Minor Storm periods for the UT day, 24 November. Active
and Minor Storm conditions were observed around 12UT and were
associated with the prolonged Bz southward excursion. Expect
the geomagnetic activity to remain enhanced for the next two
UT days, 25-26 November, due to the enhanced solar wind speed
associated with a large coronal hole.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
24 Nov Fair Fair Fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
25 Nov Fair Fair Fair-poor
26 Nov Fair Fair Fair-poor
27 Nov Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal-fair
COMMENT: Minor to Moderate MUF depressions are expected over
the next two days due to low levels of ionising radiation and
enhanced geomagnetic activity.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
24 Nov 1
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Depressed by 30% during local day.
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 25% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Depressed by 25% after local dawn.
Southern Australian Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values.
Depressed by 20% after local dawn.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Depressed by 15% over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Oct 10
Nov 26
Dec 25
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
25 Nov -5 15 to 20% below predicted monthly values
26 Nov -5 15 to 20% below predicted monthly values
27 Nov 5 Depressed 15%/near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: The Australian region observed Mild to Moderate MUF
depressions over the UT day, November 24. Similar conditions
are expected for the next two days due to increased geomagnetic
activity and low levels of ionising radiation. Isolated cases
of sporadic E were noted throughout the Australian region.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 23 Nov
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 7.5E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.4E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 8.60E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 2%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A8.7
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 23 Nov
Speed: 426 km/sec Density: 6.0 p/cc Temp: 72900 K Bz: -2 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 fax: +61 2 9213 8060
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