[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 23 November 16 issued 2330 UT on 23 Nov 2016 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Thu Nov 24 10:30:22 EST 2016
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/23 NOVEMBER 2016 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 23 NOVEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 24 NOVEMBER - 26 NOVEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:** RED ** ION: ** YELLOW **
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 23 Nov: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 23 Nov: 78/17
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
24 Nov 25 Nov 26 Nov
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 79/19 79/19 80/20
COMMENT: Solar activity was Very Low for the UT day, 23 November.
Expect solar activity to remain Very Low for the next three days
with a slight chance of C-class flares. No Earthward directed
CMEs observed in the available SOHO imagery. Solar wind speed
reached 520 km/s early in the UT day then started to decline
at 500UT. The wind speed is currently around 420 km/s. The Bz
component of the IMF has ranged between -6nT to 4nT over the
UT day, mostly southward but fluctuating later in the day. Bt
varied between 2nT and 9nT. Solar wind speed is expected to remain
enhanced and may increase due to the influence of a high speed
solar wind stream from a large coronal hole with a highly irregular
shape.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 23 Nov: Quiet with isolated
Unsettled periods.
Estimated Indices 23 Nov : A K
Australian Region 5 22221121
Cocos Island 5 21111131
Darwin 5 12211122
Townsville 5 22221121
Learmonth 7 32221131
Alice Springs 5 22211121
Norfolk Island 5 22221111
Gingin 6 22221131
Camden 5 22221121
Canberra 6 22321121
Launceston 7 22322221
Hobart 6 22321121
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 23 Nov :
Macquarie Island 10 33233220
Casey 15 44422232
Mawson 26 55422353
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 23 Nov :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 4 (Quiet)
Melbourne NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 23 Nov : A
Fredericksburg 15
Planetary 20
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 22 Nov : A K
Fredericksburg 9
Planetary 9 1101 3333
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
24 Nov 25 Unsettled to Minor Storm
25 Nov 20 Quiet to Active
26 Nov 15 Quiet to Active
COMMENT: SWS Geomagnetic Warning 52 was issued on 22 November
and is current for 23-24 Nov. Geomagnetic conditions were mostly
Quiet with some isolated Unsettled periods for the UT day, 23
November. Expect the geomagnetic activity to increase over the
next three days due to an increase in the solar wind speed associated
with a large coronal hole with a highly irregular shape. Activity
may reach Major Storm levels, particularly at higher latitudes,
if Bz goes Southward for a prolonged period.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
23 Nov Normal Normal Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
24 Nov Normal-fair Normal-fair Fair
25 Nov Normal-fair Normal-fair Fair
26 Nov Normal-fair Normal-fair Fair
COMMENT: Minor to Moderate MUF depressions are expected over
the next three days due to low levels of ionising radiation and
expected rise in geomagnetic activity.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
23 Nov 10
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values.
Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Depressed by 15% over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Oct 10
Nov 26
Dec 25
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
24 Nov -5 15 to 20% below predicted monthly values
25 Nov -5 15 to 20% below predicted monthly values
26 Nov -5 15 to 20% below predicted monthly values
COMMENT: SWS HF Communications Warning 62 was issued on 23 November
and is current for 23-24 Nov. The Australian region observed
near predicted MUFs over the UT day. Minor to Moderate MUF depressions
are expected for the next three days due to an increase in geomagnetic
activity and low levels of ionising radiation. Isolated cases
of sporadic E were noted throughout the Australian region.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 22 Nov
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.2E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.4E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 4.40E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A9.2
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 22 Nov
Speed: 425 km/sec Density: 9.8 p/cc Temp: 133000 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 fax: +61 2 9213 8060
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