[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 22 November 16 issued 2330 UT on 22 Nov 2016 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]

Regional Warning Centre rwc at ips.gov.au
Wed Nov 23 10:30:21 EST 2016


SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/22 NOVEMBER 2016 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 22 NOVEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 23 NOVEMBER - 25 NOVEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:** RED **     ION: ** YELLOW **
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 22 Nov:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 22 Nov:  77/16


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             23 Nov             24 Nov             25 Nov
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    79/19              79/19              81/22

COMMENT: Solar activity was Very Low for the UT day, 22 November. 
Expect solar activity to remain Very Low for the next three days. 
No Earthward directed CMEs observed in the available SOHO imagery. 
Solar wind speed remained around 350 Km/s until 06 UT after which 
it increased to reach 500Km/s ~12 UT and is currently around 
450Km/s. The Bz component of the IMF has ranged between +/-7nT 
over the UT day with a more disturbed period starting 06UT. At 
the same time the total field Bt increased from 10nT to 15nT. 
This signature is most likely associated with the passage of 
the southern part of a large recurrent coronal hole. Solar wind 
speed is expected to further increase due to the influence of 
a high speed solar wind stream from the above-mentioned coronal 
hole.

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 22 Nov: Quiet to Unsettled 
with isolated Active periods.

Estimated Indices 22 Nov : A   K           
   Australian Region      10   11223333
      Cocos Island         8   11222323
      Darwin              10   11222433
      Townsville          10   11223333
      Learmonth           14   11233434
      Alice Springs        9   11222333
      Norfolk Island       7   21222232
      Gingin              11   11223433
      Camden              10   21223333
      Canberra             9   11222333
      Launceston          14   21323434
      Hobart              13   21323433    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 22 Nov :
      Macquarie Island     9   10223333
      Casey               21   34443334
      Mawson              33   43334337

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 22 Nov : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin               0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)
      Melbourne           NA

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 22 Nov : A 
           Fredericksburg        12
           Planetary             18                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 21 Nov :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         4
           Planetary              4   0101 1112     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
23 Nov    35    Unsettled to Minor Storm
24 Nov    30    Unsettled to Minor Storm
25 Nov    20    Quiet to Active

COMMENT: SWS Geomagnetic Warning 52 was issued on 22 November 
and is current for 23-24 Nov. Geomagnetic conditions were Quiet 
to Unsettled with isolated Active periods for the UT day, 22 
November. Unsettled and Active conditions observed during the 
later part of UT day in response to a more disturbed period of 
Bz. Expect the geomagnetic activity to further increase over 
the next three days due to an increase in the solar wind speed 
associated with a large coronal hole. Activity may reach Major 
Storm levels, particularly at higher latitudes.

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
22 Nov      Normal         Normal-fair    Normal-fair    

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
23 Nov      Fair           Fair           Fair-poor
24 Nov      Fair           Fair           Fair-poor
25 Nov      Normal-fair    Normal-fair    Fair

COMMENT: Minor to Moderate MUF depressions are expected over 
the next three days due to low levels of ionising radiation and 
expected rise in geomagnetic activity.

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
22 Nov     8

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Niue Island Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Depressed by 25% during local day.
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
Oct      10
Nov      26
Dec      25

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
23 Nov    -5    15 to 20% below predicted monthly values
24 Nov    -5    15 to 20% below predicted monthly values
25 Nov    -5    15 to 20% below predicted monthly values

COMMENT: Slightly depressed HF conditions over the Northern Australian 
region during local day were observed for the UT day, 22 November. 
The Southern Australian region observed near predicted MUFs over 
the UT day. Minor to Moderate MUF depressions are expected for 
the next three days due to an increase in geomagnetic activity 
and low levels of ionising radiation. Isolated cases of sporadic 
E were noted throughout the Australian region.

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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 21 Nov
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   1.3E+06
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.4E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 3.80E+07   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 6%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: A7.1

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 21 Nov
Speed: 329 km/sec  Density:    9.8 p/cc  Temp:    26800 K  Bz:  -1 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
-----------------------------------------------------------

Space Weather Services              email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386                         WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA       FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010                fax: +61 2 9213 8060 

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