[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 21 November 16 issued 2338 UT on 21 Nov 2016 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]

rwc rwc at ips.gov.au
Tue Nov 22 10:38:47 EST 2016


SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/21 NOVEMBER 2016 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 21 NOVEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 22 NOVEMBER - 24 NOVEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:** RED **     ION: ** YELLOW **
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 21 Nov:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 21 Nov:  75/13


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             22 Nov             23 Nov             24 Nov
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    77/16              77/16              79/19

COMMENT: Solar activity was Very Low for the UT day, 21 November. 
Expect solar activity to remain Very Low for the next three days 
with a slight chance of C-class flares. No Earthward directed 
CMEs observed based on available SOHO imagery. Solar wind speed 
remained around 350 km/s. The Bz component of the IMF has ranged 
between +/-7nT over the UT day with a notable sustained southward 
excursions between 16-20UT. The total field Bt ranged between 
5-10 nT. Mid way through the UT day, 22 November, solar wind 
speed is expected to gradually increase due to the influence 
of a high speed solar wind stream from a large coronal hole extending 
from the solar north pole across the equatorial region. In the 
previous rotation,the solar wind speed reached 800 km/s. This 
rotation the coronal hole is not as large as it was last rotation.

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 21 Nov: Quiet

Estimated Indices 21 Nov : A   K           
   Australian Region       4   11112122
      Cocos Island         3   11001122
      Darwin               4   11112122
      Townsville           5   11112132
      Learmonth            4   10112222
      Alice Springs        4   11102122
      Norfolk Island       4   12012121
      Gingin               4   11111222
      Camden               5   12212122
      Canberra             3   01112121
      Launceston           7   12222232
      Hobart               5   01122222    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 21 Nov :
      Macquarie Island     3   11012121
      Casey               11   34322122
      Mawson              10   33211224

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 21 Nov : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin               0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)
      Melbourne           NA

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 21 Nov : A 
           Fredericksburg         5
           Planetary              6                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 20 Nov :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         2
           Planetary              1   0000 1001     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
22 Nov    25    Quiet to Active with possible Minor storm periods.
23 Nov    35    Active to Minor Storm
24 Nov    30    Active to Minor Storm

COMMENT: SWS Geomagnetic Warning 51 was issued on 19 November 
and is current for 21-22 Nov. Geomagnetic conditions were Quiet 
for the UT day, 21 November. Expect the geomagnetic activity 
to increase over the next three days due to an increase in the 
solar wind speed associated with a large coronal hole. Activity 
may reach Major Storm levels, particularly at higher latitudes.

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
21 Nov      Normal-fair    Normal-fair    Normal-fair    

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
22 Nov      Normal-fair    Normal-fair    Fair
23 Nov      Fair           Fair           Fair-poor
24 Nov      Fair           Fair           Fair-poor

COMMENT: Minor to Moderate MUF depressions are expected over 
the next three days due to low levels of ionising radiation and 
expected rise in geomagnetic activity.

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
21 Nov    10

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Niue Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Depressed by 15% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Depressed by 15% during local day.
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
Oct      10
Nov      26
Dec      25

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
22 Nov     5    Depressed 15%/near predicted monthly values
23 Nov    -5    15 to 20% below predicted monthly values
24 Nov    -5    15 to 20% below predicted monthly values

COMMENT: SWS HF Communications Warning 61 was issued on 19 November 
and is current for 22 Nov only. Slight MUF depressions were observed 
in the Aus/NZ regions for the UT day, 21 November. Current depressions 
are most likely associated with low levels of ionising radiation. 
Minor to Moderate MUF depressions are expected for the next three 
days due to an increase in geomagnetic activity and low levels 
of ionising radiation. Note there were isolated periods of sporadic 
E observed in the Australian region mainly between 06-09UT.

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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 20 Nov
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   1.1E+06
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.5E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 8.60E+07   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:10%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: A6.6

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 20 Nov
Speed: 352 km/sec  Density:    8.5 p/cc  Temp:    31600 K  Bz:  -1 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
-----------------------------------------------------------

Space Weather Services              email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386                         WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA       FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010                fax: +61 2 9213 8060 

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