[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 21 November 16 issued 0008 UT on 21 Nov 2016 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Mon Nov 21 11:08:08 EST 2016
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT *AMENDMENT*
ISSUED AT 0008UT/21 NOVEMBER 2016 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 20 NOVEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 21 NOVEMBER - 23 NOVEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:** YELLOW ** ION: ** YELLOW **
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 20 Nov: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 20 Nov: 76/14
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
21 Nov 22 Nov 23 Nov
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 75/13 78/17 80/20
COMMENT: Solar activity was Very Low for the UT day, 20 November.
Expect solar activity to remain Very Low for the next three days
with a slight chance of C-class flares. No Earthward directed
CMEs expected based on available C2 imagery ending at 20/1848UT.
Solar wind speed ranged between 310 and 375 km/s. The IMF Bz
component varied between +/-6nT. The Btotal field ranged from
1.4 to 7.7 nT. Expect the solar wind to remain at nominal levels
for most of the UT day, 21 November, with a possible increase
late in the UT day due to a recurrent coronal hole.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 20 Nov: Quiet
Estimated Indices 20 Nov : A K
Australian Region 4 11122111
Cocos_Island 3 011221--
Darwin 4 11122111
Townsville 4 11123011
Learmonth 3 01122111
Alice_Springs 3 01222100
Norfolk_Island 4 1011321-
Gingin 4 111221--
Camden 4 1112211-
Canberra 2 00112021
Launceston 5 112221--
Hobart 4 11232000
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 20 Nov :
Macquarie_Island 1 00021010
Casey 9 33322211
Mawson 5 122122--
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 20 Nov :
Darwin 3 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 7 (Quiet)
Alice_Springs 3 (Quiet)
Gingin 4 (Quiet)
Canberra 4 (Quiet)
Melbourne NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 20 Nov : A
Fredericksburg 4
Planetary 6
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 19 Nov : A K
Fredericksburg 2
Planetary 1 0000 1001
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
21 Nov 8 Quiet to Unsettled
22 Nov 20 active
23 Nov 35 Active to Minor storm
COMMENT: IPS Geomagnetic Warning 51 was issued on 19 November
and is current for interval 21-22 November. Geomagnetic conditions
were Quiet for the UT day, 20 November. Expect the geomagnetic
conditions to be mostly Quiet for the UT day, 21 November, with
a possiblity of an increase in geomagnetic activity late in the
UT day due to a recurrent coronal hole becoming geoeffective.
On 22-23 expect geomagnetic activity to be Unsettled to Active
in the Australian region with possible isolated cases of Minor
Storm levels at higher latitudes.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
20 Nov Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
21 Nov Normal Normal Normal-Fair
22 Nov Normal Normal-Fair Fair
23 Nov Fair Fair Fair-Poor
COMMENT: Near predicted MUFs expected today with likely depressions
and minor degradation in HF communications on 22-23 November
due to ionospheric storming.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
20 Nov 5
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Depressed by 20% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day.
Depressed by 20% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Oct 10
Nov 26
Dec 25
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
21 Nov 10 near predicted monthly values
22 Nov 5 near predicted monthly values
23 Nov 0 near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
20%
COMMENT: IPS HF Communications Warning 61 was issued on 19 November
and is current for interval 22 November only. The Australian
region observed near predicted MUFs over the UT day. Expect similar
conditions for 21 November. Expect possible minor degradations
in HF communications with possible depressions on 22-23 November
due to an increase in geomagnetic activity due a recurrent coronal
hole. Isolated cases of sporadic E were noted throughout the
Australian region.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 19 Nov
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.4E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.5E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.00E+08 (moderate fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:15%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A6.8
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 19 Nov
Speed: 321 km/sec Density: 8.6 p/cc Temp: 13400 K Bz: 1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
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Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
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