[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 20 November 16 issued 2330 UT on 20 Nov 2016 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Mon Nov 21 10:37:00 EST 2016
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/20 NOVEMBER 2016 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 20 NOVEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 21 NOVEMBER - 23 NOVEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:** YELLOW ** ION: ** YELLOW **
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 20 Nov: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 20 Nov: 76/14
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
21 Nov 22 Nov 23 Nov
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 75/13 78/17 80/20
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 20 Nov: Quiet
Estimated Indices 20 Nov : A K
Australian Region 4 11122111
Cocos Island 3 011221--
Darwin 4 11122111
Townsville 5 111230--
Learmonth 3 0112211-
Alice Springs 3 01222100
Norfolk Island 4 1011321-
Gingin 4 111221--
Camden 4 1112211-
Canberra 2 00112021
Launceston 5 112221--
Hobart 5 112320--
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 20 Nov :
Macquarie Island 1 00021010
Casey 9 33322211
Mawson 5 122122--
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 20 Nov :
Darwin 5 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 7 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 3 (Quiet)
Gingin 4 (Quiet)
Canberra 4 (Quiet)
Melbourne NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 20 Nov : A
Fredericksburg 4
Planetary 6
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 19 Nov : A K
Fredericksburg 2
Planetary 1 0000 1001
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
21 Nov 6 Quiet
22 Nov 19 Active
23 Nov 33 Active to Minor storm
COMMENT: SWS Geomagnetic Warning 51 was issued on 19 November
and is current for 21-22 Nov. Disturbed geomagnetic conditions
expected during the forecast period.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
20 Nov Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
21 Nov Normal Normal Normal
22 Nov Normal Normal-Fair Fair
23 Nov Normal-Fair Fair Fair-Poor
COMMENT: Degraded HF conditions expected during the forecast
period, particularly during local night hours, at mid to high
latitudes.
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
20 Nov 6
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Depressed by 20% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day.
Depressed by 20% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Oct 10
Nov 26
Dec 25
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
21 Nov 0 Mildly depressed (<15%) to near predicted monthly
values
22 Nov 25 Near predicted monthly values
23 Nov 15 Depressed 15% after local dawn, then recovering
COMMENT: SWS HF Communications Warning 61 was issued on 19 November
and is current for 22 Nov only.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 19 Nov
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.4E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.5E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.00E+08 (moderate fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:15%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A6.8
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 19 Nov
Speed: 321 km/sec Density: 8.6 p/cc Temp: 13400 K Bz: 1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 fax: +61 2 9213 8060
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