[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 29 November 16 issued 2330 UT on 29 Nov 2016 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Wed Nov 30 10:30:32 EST 2016
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/29 NOVEMBER 2016 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 29 NOVEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 30 NOVEMBER - 02 DECEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 29 Nov: Moderate
Flares Max Fadeout Freq. Sectors
M1.0 1723UT possible lower South American/
Atlantic
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 29 Nov: 86/29
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
30 Nov 01 Dec 02 Dec
Activity Moderate Moderate Moderate
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 90/34 90/34 90/34
COMMENT: Solar activity was moderate over the last 24 hours,
with an M1 X-ray flare from region 2615 (S07E53). No Earth-directed
CMEs were observed. Moderate activity is expected for the next
3 days, with region 2615 growing. The solar wind speed declined
to 400 km/s. The IMF total strength rose, peaking around 5 nT,
currently 4 nT. The Bz component varied between -3 to +4 nT.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 29 Nov: Quiet
Estimated Indices 29 Nov : A K
Australian Region 4 11022122
Cocos Island 2 10011121
Darwin 3 11021111
Townsville 5 11122122
Learmonth 4 20022122
Alice Springs 3 11021111
Norfolk Island 2 11011011
Culgoora 7 10023332
Gingin 4 20022122
Camden 4 21111112
Canberra 2 11011011
Launceston 3 11022111
Hobart 3 11021022
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 29 Nov :
Macquarie Island 2 01022000
Mawson 15 33123235
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 29 Nov :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Melbourne NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 29 Nov : A
Fredericksburg 7
Planetary 7
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 28 Nov : A K
Fredericksburg 7
Planetary 7 1221 2222
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
30 Nov 8 Quiet to Unsettled
01 Dec 5 Quiet
02 Dec 5 Quiet
COMMENT: Magnetic conditions over the Australian region were
quiet on 29-Nov and are expected to remain so for the next 3
days.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
29 Nov Normal-fair Normal Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
30 Nov Normal Normal Normal-fair
01 Dec Normal Normal Normal-fair
02 Dec Normal Normal Normal-fair
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
29 Nov 18
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Oct 10
Nov 26
Dec 25
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
30 Nov 15 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
15%
01 Dec 20 Near predicted monthly values
02 Dec 25 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: MUFs were mostly near monthly predicted values on 29-Nov,
with some brief depressed periods. Some periods of sporadic-E
were observed. HF conditions are likely to improve further over
the next few days, with increased EUV flux.
-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 28 Nov
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 2.3E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.4E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.10E+09 (very high fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:31%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B1.3
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 28 Nov
Speed:NA km/sec Density: NA p/cc Temp: NA K Bz: NA nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
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