[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 11 November 16 issued 2352 UT on 11 Nov 2016 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sat Nov 12 10:52:39 EST 2016
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/11 NOVEMBER 2016 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 11 NOVEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 12 NOVEMBER - 14 NOVEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:** RED ** ION: ** YELLOW **
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 11 Nov: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 11 Nov: 78/17
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
12 Nov 13 Nov 14 Nov
Activity Very low to low Very low to low Very low to low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 75/13 72/8 72/8
COMMENT: Solar activity was Very Low over the last 24 hours.
No flare activity recorded for the two numbered regions currently
on the visible disc. Regions 2607 (S17W80) and 2608 (S08W58)
remain quiet and stable. Solar wind speed ranged from 430km/s
to 520km/s over the UT day and is currently 460km/s at the time
of this report. The Bz component of the IMF fluctuated between
+8nT and -9nT with no prolonged southward periods. Solar wind
speed is expected to remain elevated over the next 24-36 hours
while under the influence of a high speed solar wind stream from
a southern hemisphere located negative polarity coronal hole.
Solar activity is expected to remain Very Low to Low for the
next three days.
-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 11 Nov: Quiet to Unsettled
Estimated Indices 11 Nov : A K
Australian Region 7 22122223
Cocos Island 5 21121222
Darwin 8 22132223
Townsville 8 22132223
Learmonth 8 22132223
Alice Springs 8 22132223
Norfolk Island 5 22121112
Gingin 8 32221223
Camden 7 22122223
Canberra 4 21021212
Launceston 10 32122333
Hobart 7 22121223
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 11 Nov :
Macquarie Island 9 31232322
Casey 26 45542334
Mawson 19 43432244
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 11 Nov :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 37 (Quiet to unsettled)
Melbourne NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 11 Nov : A
Fredericksburg 13
Planetary 17
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 10 Nov : A K
Fredericksburg 11
Planetary 16 2123 4533
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
12 Nov 25 Active
13 Nov 15 Unsettled to Active
14 Nov 10 Quiet to Unsettled
COMMENT: SWS Geomagnetic Warning 49 was issued on 11 November
and is current for 11-12 Nov. Elevated wind speed but lack of
sustained southward Bz resulted in only Quiet to Unsettled conditions
for 11Nov. Solar wind speed is expected to remain elevated and
could increase slightly over the next 24-36 hours due to the
influence of a high speed solar wind stream from the recurrent
southern hemisphere located negative polarity coronal hole. Active
to possible Minor Storm periods possible for 12Nov, Quiet to
Unsettled conditions for 13Nov-14Nov with possible Active periods
for 13Nov.
-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
11 Nov Normal-fair Normal-fair Fair-poor
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
12 Nov Normal-fair Normal-fair Fair-poor
13 Nov Normal Normal-fair Normal-fair
14 Nov Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: Variable MUFs were observed over the last 24 hours ranging
from brief enhancements at low latitudes to sustained depressions
for both low and mid latitudes. Periods of disturbed ionospheric
support for high latitudes. Elevated geomagnetic activity is
forecast for 12Nov-13Nov due to coronal hole effects resulting
in periods of depressed MUFs for mid latitudes and disturbed
conditions for high latitudes for the next 2 days with return
to normal conditions for 14Nov.
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
11 Nov 7
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day.
Depressed by 30% during local night.
Depressed by 25% after local dawn.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 20% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day.
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Depressed by 15% over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Oct 10
Nov 26
Dec 25
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
12 Nov 0 Depressed 15%/near predicted monthly values
13 Nov 5 Depressed 15%/near predicted monthly values
14 Nov 15 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: SWS Preliminary HF Communications Warning 54 was issued
on 11 November and is current for 11-13 Nov. Variable MUFs observed
for all regions over the last 24 hours with daytime depressions
for Equatorial, Northern AUS, Southern AUS/NZ regions and periods
of enhancements for Equatorial stations. MUFs either near predicted
monthly values overnight or mildly depressed for Southern AUS/NZ
stations. Similar conditions are expected for the next 2 days
with MUF depressions of ~20% for Northern AUS and Southern AUS/NZ
regions, possible periods of enhanced MUFs for low latitude stations
and disturbed ionospheric support for Antarctic regions. Mostly
normal conditions expected for 14Nov.
-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 10 Nov
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.4E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.4E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 5.60E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B1.2
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 10 Nov
Speed: 368 km/sec Density: 9.8 p/cc Temp: 48900 K Bz: -2 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
-----------------------------------------------------------
Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 fax: +61 2 9213 8060
IMPORTANT: This e-mail, including any attachments, may contain,
confidential or copyright information. The views expressed in
this message are those of the individual sender, unless
specifically stated to be the views of SWS. If you are not
the intended recipient, please contact the sender immediately
and delete all copies of this e-mail and attachments.
To unsubscribe from an IPS mail list either send an email to
"MAIL_LIST"-leave at ips.gov.au or go to
http://www.sws.bom.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/"MAIL_LIST".
Information about training can be obtained from
http://www.sws.bom.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/ips-training.
General information is available from
http://www.sws.bom.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/ips-info.
More information about the ips-dsgr
mailing list