[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 12 November 16 issued 2352 UT on 12 Nov 2016 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sun Nov 13 10:52:23 EST 2016
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/12 NOVEMBER 2016 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 12 NOVEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 13 NOVEMBER - 15 NOVEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:** YELLOW ** ION: ** YELLOW **
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 12 Nov: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 12 Nov: 78/17
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
13 Nov 14 Nov 15 Nov
Activity Very low to low Very low to low Very low to low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 82/23 80/20 78/17
COMMENT: Solar activity was Very Low for 12Nov. No earthward
directed CME's or any notable solar region development and activity
observed over the last 24 hours. Solar wind speed continued to
increase from 440km/s at 00UT to be ~700km/s at the time of this
report. The Bz component of the IMF fluctuated between +/-12nT
between 03UT and 05UT after which it gradually decreased in magnitude
such that it ranged between +/-5nT for the latter half of the
UT day. Solar wind speed is expected to remain elevated over
the next 24-36 hours while under the influence of a high speed
solar wind stream from a southern hemisphere located negative
polarity coronal hole. Solar activity is expected to remain Very
Low to Low for the next three days.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 12 Nov: Quiet to Minor
Storm
Estimated Indices 12 Nov : A K
Australian Region 16 23253323
Cocos Island 9 13232322
Darwin 13 23243323
Townsville 19 23354333
Learmonth 17 23253333
Alice Springs 17 23353323
Norfolk Island 11 23243222
Gingin 17 23253333
Camden 20 24254333
Canberra 12 23243223
Launceston 23 35253334
Hobart 17 24253323
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 12 Nov :
Macquarie Island 32 24266433
Casey 41 56654333
Mawson 40 45544555
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 12 Nov :
Darwin 4 (Quiet)
Townsville 12 (Quiet)
Learmonth 10 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 8 (Quiet)
Gingin 51 (Unsettled)
Canberra 62 (Active)
Melbourne NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 12 Nov : A
Fredericksburg 15
Planetary 21
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 11 Nov : A K
Fredericksburg 10
Planetary 10 4112 1223
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
13 Nov 20 Active
14 Nov 12 Unsettled
15 Nov 8 Quiet to Unsettled
COMMENT: Geomagnetic conditions ranged from Quiet to Minor Storm
levels over the last 24 hours with solar wind speed increasing
in the first half of the UT day but with only brief southward
Bz periods. Solar wind speed is expected to remain elevated over
the next 24-36 hours due to the influence of a high speed solar
wind stream from the recurrent southern hemisphere located negative
polarity coronal hole. Predominantly Unsettled conditions with
possible Active periods forecast for 13Nov, Quiet to Unsettled
conditions for 14Nov-15Nov.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
12 Nov Normal Normal-fair Fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
13 Nov Normal Normal-fair Fair
14 Nov Normal Normal-fair Fair-normal
15 Nov Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: Variable MUFs were observed over the last 24 hours ranging
from brief enhancements at low to mid latitudes to sustained
depressions for mid and high latitudes. Periods of disturbed
ionospheric support for high latitudes. Elevated geomagnetic
activity is forecast 13Nov due to coronal hole effects resulting
in periods of depressed MUFs for mid latitudes and disturbed
conditions for high latitudes for the next 2 days with return
to normal conditions for 15Nov.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
12 Nov 1
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 30% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Depressed by 15% over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Oct 10
Nov 26
Dec 25
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
13 Nov -10 15 to 20% below predicted monthly values
14 Nov 0 Depressed 15%/near predicted monthly values
15 Nov 5 Depressed 15%/near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: SWS Preliminary HF Communications Warning 54 was issued
on 11 November and is current for 11-13 Nov. Variable ionospheric
support ranging from near monthly predicted values to MUF depressions
of 15%-30% observed for all regions over the last 24 hours. Similar
conditions are expected for the next 2 days with MUF depressions
of ~20% for Northern AUS and Southern AUS/NZ regions, possible
periods of enhanced MUFs for low to mid latitude stations and
disturbed ionospheric support for Antarctic regions. Mostly normal
conditions expected for 15Nov.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 11 Nov
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 7.1E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.5E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.40E+05 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A8.2
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 11 Nov
Speed: 457 km/sec Density: 9.0 p/cc Temp: 187000 K Bz: 3 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 fax: +61 2 9213 8060
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