[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 10 November 16 issued 2348 UT on 10 Nov 2016 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Fri Nov 11 10:48:55 EST 2016
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/10 NOVEMBER 2016 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 10 NOVEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 11 NOVEMBER - 13 NOVEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:** RED ** ION: ** YELLOW **
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 10 Nov: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 10 Nov: 80/20
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
11 Nov 12 Nov 13 Nov
Activity Very low to low Very low to low Very low to low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 80/20 80/20 80/20
COMMENT: Solar activity was Very Low over the last 24 hours.
Solar wind speed was less than 400km/s from 00UT till around
1640UT where a step increase to 432km/s was observed and it is
currently at 450km/s at the time of this report. The Bz component
of the IMF underwent a sustained southward period between 08UT
and 16UT reaching a maximum of -13nT. Analysis of the CME observed
in LASCO C2 imagery 09Nov (from 0136UT onwards) directed to the
northeast is not likely to be geoeffective. Solar wind speed
is expected to gradually increase over the next 24 hours due
to the influence of a high speed solar wind stream from a southern
hemisphere located negative polarity coronal hole. Solar activity
is expected to remain Very Low to Low for the next three days.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 10 Nov: Quiet to Active
Estimated Indices 10 Nov : A K
Australian Region 14 33223433
Cocos Island 12 33122432
Darwin 10 33222322
Townsville 13 33223423
Learmonth 14 33223433
Alice Springs 12 33222423
Norfolk Island 11 33223322
Gingin 12 22223433
Camden 15 33233433
Canberra 9 22223322
Launceston 18 33334433
Hobart 21 23334354
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 10 Nov :
Macquarie Island 24 22245632
Casey 20 45422333
Mawson 25 33234545
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 10 Nov :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 2 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 2 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 3 (Quiet)
Melbourne NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 10 Nov : A
Fredericksburg 14
Planetary 19
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 09 Nov : A K
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 5 0012 2123
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
11 Nov 30 Active to Minor Storm
12 Nov 35 Active to Minor Storm
13 Nov 15 Unsettled to Active
COMMENT: Quiet to Active conditions observed over the last 24
hours with notable sustained southward Bz between 08UT-16UT.
Solar wind speed is expected to gradually increase over the next
24 hours due to the onset of a high speed solar wind stream from
a southern hemisphere located negative polarity coronal hole.
Active to possible Minor Storm periods for 11Nov and 12Nov with
Unsettled to Active conditions for 13Nov.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
10 Nov Normal-fair Normal-fair Fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
11 Nov Normal-fair Normal-fair Fair-poor
12 Nov Normal-fair Fair Poor
13 Nov Normal-fair Fair Poor-fair
COMMENT: Variable MUFs were observed over the last 24 hours ranging
from brief enhancements at low latitudes to sustained depressions
for mid latitudes and disturbed ionospheric support for high
latitudes. An expected increase in geomagnetic activity is forecast
for 11Nov-12Nov due to coronal hole effects resulting in periods
of depressed MUFs for mid latitudes and disturbed conditions
for high latitudes for the next 3 days.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
10 Nov 12
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Niue Island Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values.
Depressed by 30% after local dawn.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 20% during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Oct 10
Nov 26
Dec 25
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
11 Nov -5 15 to 20% below predicted monthly values
12 Nov -15 20 to 30% below predicted monthly values
13 Nov 0 Depressed 15%/near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Variable MUFs observed for all regions over the last
24 hours with daytime depressions for Northern AUS, Southern
AUS/NZ regions and notable enhancements during local day for
Equatorial stations and during local night for some Northern
AUS stations. Similar conditions are expected for 11Nov. An expected
increase in geomagnetic activity over the next 2 days is expected
to result in MUF depressions of ~20% for Northern AUS and Southern
AUS/NZ regions, possible periods of enhanced MUFs for low latitude
stations and disturbed ionospheric support for Antarctic regions
for 11Nov-13Nov.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 09 Nov
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 9.8E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.4E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 8.40E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 2%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A9.8
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 09 Nov
Speed: 336 km/sec Density: 21.7 p/cc Temp: 38700 K Bz: 1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 fax: +61 2 9213 8060
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