[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 09 November 16 issued 2349 UT on 09 Nov 2016 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Thu Nov 10 10:49:43 EST 2016
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/09 NOVEMBER 2016 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 09 NOVEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 10 NOVEMBER - 12 NOVEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:** YELLOW ** ION: ** RED **
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 09 Nov: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 09 Nov: 80/20
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
10 Nov 11 Nov 12 Nov
Activity Very low Very low to low Very low to low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 80/20 80/20 80/20
COMMENT: Solar activity was Very Low over the last 24 hours.
A CME was observed in LASCO C2 imagery from 0136UT onwards, directed
to the northeast. Further analysis is currently in progress to
determine if it will be geoeffective. A small shock in the solar
wind parameters at 0543UT indicated the delayed arrival of the
05Nov disappearing solar filament CME. Solar wind speed increased
at this time from 298km/s to 329km/s and is currently 340km/s
at the time of this report. The Bz component of the IMF has ranged
between +/-7nT over the UT day with notable sustained southward
excursions between 07UT-12UT and 16UT-19UT. Solar wind speed
is expected to gradually increase over the next 2 days due to
the influence of a high speed solar wind stream from a southern
hemisphere located negative polarity coronal hole. Solar activity
is expected to remain Very Low to Low for the next three days.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 09 Nov: Quiet to Unsettled
Estimated Indices 09 Nov : A K
Australian Region 5 00321122
Cocos Island 4 00311122
Darwin 5 11311122
Townsville 7 11322123
Learmonth 6 10322222
Alice Springs 6 10322122
Norfolk Island 5 10321022
Gingin 6 00322222
Camden 5 01321122
Canberra 4 00321012
Launceston 9 01432123
Hobart 4 00321012
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 09 Nov :
Macquarie Island 9 00244212
Casey 9 22332123
Mawson 30 21324374
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 09 Nov :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Melbourne NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 09 Nov : A
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 7
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 08 Nov : A K
Fredericksburg 2
Planetary 2 0000 2001
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
10 Nov 20 Active
11 Nov 30 Active to Minor Storm
12 Nov 15 Unsettled to Active
COMMENT: SWS Geomagnetic Warning 48 was issued on 9 November
and is current for 9-10 Nov. Quiet to Unsettled conditions observed
over the last 24 hours with the arrival of the weak CME from
05Nov disappearing solar filament. Solar wind speed is expected
to gradually increase over the next 2 days due to the onset of
a high speed solar wind stream from a southern hemisphere located
negative polarity coronal hole. Quiet to Active conditions forecast
for 10Nov with Active to possible Minor Storm periods for 11Nov
and Unsettled to Active conditions for 12Nov.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
09 Nov Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
10 Nov Normal-fair Normal-fair Fair
11 Nov Normal-fair Fair Fair-poor
12 Nov Normal-fair Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: Variable MUFs were observed over the last 24 hours ranging
from brief enhancements at low and high latitudes to sustained
depressions for mid to low latitudes. An expected increase in
geomagnetic activity is forecast for 10Nov-12Nov due to coronal
hole effects resulting in periods of depressed MUFs for mid latitudes
and disturbed conditions for high latitudes for the next 3 days.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
09 Nov 11
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 20% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Oct 10
Nov 26
Dec 25
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
10 Nov 10 Near predicted monthly values
11 Nov -15 20 to 30% below predicted monthly values
12 Nov 0 Depressed 15%/near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Observed MUF's were at predicted monthly values over
the last 24 hours for Southern AUS/NZ and Antarctic regions,
with variable ionospheric support for Northern AUS/Equatorial
regions with slightly enhanced MUF's during local night and depressed
MUFs during local day. Similar conditions are expected for most
of the UT day for 10Nov. An expected increase in geomagnetic
activity over the next 2 days is expected to result in MUF depressions
of ~20% for Northern AUS and Southern AUS/NZ regions, possible
periods of enhanced MUFs for low latitude stations and disturbed
ionospheric support for Antarctic regions for 11Nov-12Nov.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 08 Nov
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.9E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.4E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 4.80E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 7%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A7.1
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 08 Nov
Speed: 292 km/sec Density: 8.1 p/cc Temp: 15300 K Bz: 1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 fax: +61 2 9213 8060
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