[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 03 November 16 issued 2330 UT on 03 Nov 2016 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Fri Nov 4 10:30:49 EST 2016
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/03 NOVEMBER 2016 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 03 NOVEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 04 NOVEMBER - 06 NOVEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:** YELLOW ** ION: ** YELLOW **
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 03 Nov: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 03 Nov: 76/14
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
04 Nov 05 Nov 06 Nov
Activity Very low Very low Very low to low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 78/17 78/17 78/17
COMMENT: Solar activity was Very Low for the UT day, 3 November.
Solar activity is expected to remain Very Low for the next three
UT days, 4-6 November. No Earthward bound CMEs observed with
available SOHO imagery. DSCOVR plots show that over the last
24 hours the solar wind speed was varying in the vicinity of
its nominal values, 390-430 km/s. The total Interplanetary Magnetic
Field (IMF) Bt varied from 5 to 7 nT. The Bz component of the
IMF fluctuated between -6/+3 nT. The prolonged period with negative
Bz values began on 2 November at 1900 UT and ended today, on
3 November at 1900 UT. Expect the solar wind to remain near nominal
levels during the next UT day, 4 November. The solar wind speed
may increase because a small coronal hole in the Southern hemisphere
is approaching a geoeffective position.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 03 Nov: Quiet to Active
Estimated Indices 03 Nov : A K
Australian Region 13 22443222
Cocos Island 9 21333222
Darwin 11 22343222
Townsville 14 22443322
Learmonth 16 22353323
Alice Springs 11 22343222
Norfolk Island 12 13442222
Culgoora 9 22332222
Gingin 17 32344333
Camden 15 22453222
Canberra 11 12442212
Launceston 21 23553323
Hobart 19 23553203
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 03 Nov :
Macquarie Island 48 25774322
Casey 17 34442233
Mawson 34 55333446
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 03 Nov :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 5 (Quiet)
Melbourne NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 03 Nov : A
Fredericksburg 15
Planetary 18
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 02 Nov : A K
Fredericksburg 12
Planetary 10 4211 4213
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
04 Nov 20 Unsettled to Active
05 Nov 15 Unsettled to Active
06 Nov 10 Quiet to Unsettled
COMMENT: Geomagnetic activity in the Australian region was Quiet
to Unsettled with an isolated period of Active levels at low
and mid latitudes and Minor Storm levels at higher latitudes
over the UT day, 3 November. In the Antarctic region isolated
Minor Storm to Severe Storm levels were also observed. Expect
Unsettled to Active conditions with periods of Minor Storm levels
in the Australian region for the next two UT days, 4-5 November,
if a small coronal hole in the Southern hemisphere will become
geoeffective, and Quiet to Unsettled levels for the third UT
day, 6 November.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
03 Nov Normal Normal-fair Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
04 Nov Normal Normal-fair Fair
05 Nov Normal Normal-fair Normal-fair
06 Nov Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: Normal to depressed MUFs were observed for the UT day,
3 November. Expect some degradation in HF communication during
the next three UT days, 4-6 November, as a consequence of the
increased geomagnetic activity.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
03 Nov -7
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 35% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Northern Australian Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian Region:
Depressed by 25% during local day.
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Depressed by 25% after local dawn.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Depressed by 20% over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Oct 10
Nov 26
Dec 25
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
04 Nov -10 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 5 to
30%
05 Nov 0 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 5 to
25%
06 Nov 0 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 5 to
15%
COMMENT: Normal to depressed MUFs were observed for the UT day,
3 November, in the Aus/NZ region. Expect normal to depressed
conditions to prevail during the next three UT days, 4-6 November
with some degradation in HF communication at mid and high latitudes.
Note, there were periods of sporadic E observed in the Australian
region.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 02 Nov
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 2.4E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.4E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.00E+08 (moderate fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:15%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A6.7
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 02 Nov
Speed: 420 km/sec Density: 5.4 p/cc Temp: 31500 K Bz: -1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 fax: +61 2 9213 8060
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