[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 02 November 16 issued 2331 UT on 02 Nov 2016 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Thu Nov 3 10:31:01 EST 2016
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/02 NOVEMBER 2016 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 02 NOVEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 03 NOVEMBER - 05 NOVEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 02 Nov: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 02 Nov: 76/14
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
03 Nov 04 Nov 05 Nov
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 76/14 74/11 72/8
COMMENT: Solar activity was Very Low for the UT day, 2 November.
Solar activity is expected to remain Very Low for the next three
UT days, 3-5 November. No Earthward bound CMEs observed with
available SOHO imagery. DSCOVR plots show the solar wind speed
was gradually decreasing from 470 km/s to 420 km/s over the last
24 hours and is currently 420 km/s. The total Interplanetary
Magnetic Field (IMF) Bt varied from 3 to 8 nT. The Bz component
of the IMF fluctuated between -8/+5 nT; there were two prolonged
periods with negative Bz values. Expect the solar wind to remain
near nominal levels during the next 3 UT days, 3-5 November.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 02 Nov: Quiet to Active
Estimated Indices 02 Nov : A K
Australian Region 9 22124312
Cocos Island 7 21113312
Darwin 9 22124312
Townsville 11 32124322
Learmonth 11 22134313
Alice Springs 9 21124312
Norfolk Island 7 21123222
Culgoora 17 22-26222
Gingin 11 22124323
Camden 9 31124212
Canberra 6 21123212
Launceston 12 32234322
Hobart 10 31124312
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 02 Nov :
Macquarie Island 17 21136411
Casey 18 45333223
Mawson 30 53234446
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 02 Nov :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 4 (Quiet)
Canberra 2 (Quiet)
Melbourne NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 02 Nov : A
Fredericksburg 10
Planetary 12
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 01 Nov : A K
Fredericksburg 9
Planetary 11 2223 3313
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
03 Nov 8 Quiet to Unsettled
04 Nov 8 Quiet to Unsettled
05 Nov 10 Quiet to Unsettled
COMMENT: Geomagnetic activity in the Australian region was Quiet
to Unsettled with an isolated period of Active levels over the
UT day, 2 November. In the Antarctic region isolated storm levels
were also observed. Expect Quiet to Unsettled conditions in the
Australian region for the next three days, 3-5 November.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
02 Nov Normal Normal Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
03 Nov Normal Normal Normal-fair
04 Nov Normal Normal Normal-fair
05 Nov Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: Normal to depressed MUFs were observed for the UT day,
2 November. Expect normal conditions to prevail during the next
three UT days, 3-5 November, with some degradation in HF communication
at high latitudes.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
02 Nov 11
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Depressed by 25% after local dawn.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Depressed by 15% over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Oct 10
Nov 26
Dec 25
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
03 Nov 20 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 5 to
15%
04 Nov 20 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 5 to
15%
05 Nov 20 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 5 to
15%
COMMENT: Normal to mildly depressed MUFs were observed for the
UT day, 2 November, in the Aus/NZ region. Expect normal to mildly
depressed conditions to prevail during the next three UT days,
3-5 November with some degradation in HF communication at high
latitudes. Note, there were periods of sporadic E observed in
the Australian region.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 01 Nov
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 3.9E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.4E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 6.40E+08 (high fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:25%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A7.2
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 01 Nov
Speed: 477 km/sec Density: 3.6 p/cc Temp: 89000 K Bz: -1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 fax: +61 2 9213 8060
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