[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 04 November 16 issued 2330 UT on 04 Nov 2016 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sat Nov 5 10:30:34 EST 2016
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/04 NOVEMBER 2016 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 04 NOVEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 05 NOVEMBER - 07 NOVEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: ** YELLOW **
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 04 Nov: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 04 Nov: 77/16
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
05 Nov 06 Nov 07 Nov
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 78/17 78/17 78/17
COMMENT: Solar activity was Very Low for the UT day, 4 November.
Solar activity is expected to remain Very Low for the next three
UT days, 5-7 November. In the southwest quadrant a 12-degree-long
filament lifted off after 0110 UT. A CME was detected in the
available LASCO imagery at 0748 UT, pending further analysis.
DSCOVR plots show that over the last 24 hours the solar wind
speed was varying in the vicinity of its nominal values, 360-416
km/s, decreasing on average, currently at 360 km/s. The total
Interplanetary Magnetic Field (IMF) Bt varied from 3 to 6 nT.
The Bz component of the IMF fluctuated between -5/+5 nT and was
predominately positive. Expect the solar wind to remain near
its nominal levels during the next UT day, 5 November.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 04 Nov: Quiet
Estimated Indices 04 Nov : A K
Australian Region 2 21100011
Cocos Island 1 11100000
Darwin 2 21110011
Townsville 3 21210012
Learmonth 2 22100011
Alice Springs 2 21100011
Norfolk Island 2 12100010
Culgoora 7 222--22-
Gingin 2 11100020
Camden 2 21110010
Canberra 1 -1100010
Launceston 3 12210021
Hobart 3 122100--
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 04 Nov :
Macquarie Island 2 11220010
Casey 14 34522021
Mawson 10 43212132
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 04 Nov :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 2 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Melbourne NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 04 Nov : A
Fredericksburg 7
Planetary 8
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 03 Nov : A K
Fredericksburg 12
Planetary 18 3344 3223
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
05 Nov 10 Quiet
06 Nov 8 Quiet
07 Nov 8 Quiet
COMMENT: Geomagnetic activity in the Australian region was Quiet
over the UT day, 4 November. In the Antarctic region isolated
Unsettled to Minor Storm levels were also observed. Expect Quiet
conditions in the Australian region for the next three UT days,
5-7 November.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
04 Nov Normal Fair-normal Fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
05 Nov Normal Normal Normal-fair
06 Nov Normal Normal Normal-fair
07 Nov Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: Depressed to normal MUFs were observed for the UT day,
4 November. Expect some degradation in HF communication at high
latitudes during the next two UT days, 5-6 November.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
04 Nov -13
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Depressed by 25% during local day.
Depressed by 35% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 20% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day.
Depressed by 25% during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Depressed by 25% during local day.
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Depressed by 25% over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Oct 10
Nov 26
Dec 25
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
05 Nov 0 Depressed 5 to 25%/near predicted monthly values
06 Nov 10 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 5 to
20%
07 Nov 20 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 5 to
15%
COMMENT: SWS HF Communications Warning 51 was issued on 3 November
and is current for 4-5 Nov. Depressed to normal MUFs were observed
for the UT day, 4 November, in the Aus/NZ region. Expect mildly
depressed to normal conditions to prevail during the next two
UT days, 5-6 November, for low and mid latitudes, with some degradation
in HF communication at high latitudes. Note, there were periods
of sporadic E observed in the Australian region.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 03 Nov
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 5.2E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.4E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.20E+08 (moderate fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:12%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A6.6
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 03 Nov
Speed: 402 km/sec Density: 5.9 p/cc Temp: 46500 K Bz: -4 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 fax: +61 2 9213 8060
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