[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 28 May 16 issued 2334 UT on 28 May 2016 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sun May 29 09:34:21 EST 2016
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/28 MAY 2016 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 28 MAY AND FORECAST FOR 29 MAY - 31 MAY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 28 May: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 28 May: 88/32
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
29 May 30 May 31 May
Activity Very low to low Very low to low Very low to low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 90/34 90/34 85/27
COMMENT: Solar X-ray flare activity was Very Low during 28 May
UT. The largest flare, B3.3, peaking at 1149 UT was produced
by Active Region 2549. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed in
the available LASCO imagery. Expect Very Low to Low solar activity
due to a small chance for C-class flares. The solar wind speed
varied in the range 440-500 km/s. At the time of the report it
is gradually decreasing and fluctuating in the vicinity of 470
km/s. The magnitude of the Interplanetary Magnetic Field (IMF)
varied in the range 4-9 nT and its component Bz was fluctuating
between about -7 nT and +7 nT. For the next 24 hours expect the
solar wind speed to vary in the range 400-550 km/s.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 28 May: Quiet to Active
Estimated Indices 28 May : A K
Australian Region 11 22432322
Cocos Island 7 22321221
Darwin 3 11-11111
Townsville 11 22432322
Learmonth 13 33432322
Alice Springs 11 22432321
Norfolk Island 10 22421322
Gingin 12 33331332
Camden 12 23422332
Canberra 9 22421321
Melbourne 14 23432422
Launceston 17 23532432
Hobart 13 23432332
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 28 May :
Macquarie Island 12 23433221
Casey 18 44433332
Mawson 37 55553345
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 28 May :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 44 (Unsettled)
Canberra 44 (Unsettled)
Melbourne 45 (Unsettled)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 28 May : A
Fredericksburg 12
Planetary 15
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 27 May : A K
Fredericksburg 12
Planetary 12 3311 2234
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
29 May 14 Unsettled to Active
30 May 14 Unsettled to Active
31 May 8 Quiet to Unsettled
COMMENT: IPS Geomagnetic Warning 20 was issued on 27 May and
is current for 28-30 May. Geomagnetic conditions were Quiet to
Active during 28 May UT. In the Antarctica region Active and
Minor Storm levels were observed. Geomagnetic conditions in the
Australian region are expected to be mostly Unsettled to Active
on 29-30 May UT with a chance of short Minor Storm periods due
to coronal hole effects. On 31 May UT geomagnetic conditions
are expected to be Quiet to Unsettled because the coronal hole
effects are expected to wane.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
28 May Normal Normal-fair Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
29 May Normal Normal-fair Normal-fair
30 May Normal Normal-fair Normal-fair
31 May Normal Normal-fair Normal-fair
COMMENT: Conditions for HF radio wave propagation are expected
to be normal to mildly depressed in the Northern and Southern
Hemisphere during the next 3 days.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
28 May 44
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Niue Island Region:
Depressed by 25% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 25% during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Apr 30
May 47
Jun 46
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
29 May 30 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
30%
30 May 30 Depressed 10 to 30%/near predicted monthly values
31 May 30 Depressed 10 to 30%/near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: On 28 May conditions for HF radio wave propagation were
near predicted monthly values in the Antarctic region and throughout
most of the Australian region, except Northern region, where
the conditions were mildly depressed during local night. During
the next 3 days conditions in the Australian region are expected
to remain near predicted monthly values with mildly depressions.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 27 May
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.5E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.3E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 3.50E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B1.8
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 27 May
Speed: 415 km/sec Density: 7.3 p/cc Temp: 138000 K Bz: 1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 fax: +61 2 9213 8060
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