[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 27 May 16 issued 2336 UT on 27 May 2016 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]

rwc rwc at ips.gov.au
Sat May 28 09:36:11 EST 2016


SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/27 MAY 2016 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 27 MAY AND FORECAST FOR 28 MAY - 30 MAY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 27 May:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 27 May:  90/34


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             28 May             29 May             30 May
Activity     Very low to low    Very low to low    Very low to low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    90/34              95/41              95/41

COMMENT: Solar X-ray flare activity was Very Low during 27 May 
UT. The largest flare, B4.8, peaking at 1742 UT was produced 
by Active Region 2548. A disappearing solar filament lifting 
off after 0130 UT was detected in the H-alpha imagery in the 
south-east quadrant (S10E41). No Earth-directed CMEs were observed 
in the available LASCO imagery. Expect Very Low to Low solar 
activity due to a small chance for C-class flares. The solar 
wind speed varied in the range 350-500 km/s. At the time of the 
report it is increasing due to a coronal hole effect. The magnitude 
of the Interplanetary Magnetic Field (IMF) varied in the range 
3-13 nT and its component Bz was fluctuating between about -8 
nT and +9 nT. There was a relatively long period, approximately 
from 0847 UT to 0958 UT, when Bz was negative. For the next 24 
hours expect the solar wind speed to continue increasing due 
to a coronal hole effect.

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 27 May: Quiet

Estimated Indices 27 May : A   K           
   Australian Region       5   12112222
      Cocos Island         5   12111222
      Darwin               1   10011110
      Townsville           6   22112222
      Learmonth            7   22122232
      Alice Springs        5   12112221
      Norfolk Island       4   12112112
      Gingin               6   12112232
      Camden               5   12112222
      Canberra             4   12012121
      Melbourne            7   22112232
      Launceston           7   22122232
      Hobart               5   22012222    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 27 May :
      Macquarie Island     7   11034211
      Casey                8   22122233
      Mawson              24   44323255

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 27 May : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin               0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             4   (Quiet)
      Melbourne            8   (Quiet)

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 27 May : A 
           Fredericksburg         9
           Planetary             11                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 26 May :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         4
           Planetary              3   1000 0221     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
28 May     8    Quiet to Unsettled
29 May    12    Unsettled to Active
30 May    14    Unsettled to Active

COMMENT: Globally, geomagnetic conditions were Quiet to Unsettled 
during 27 May UT. In the Australian region the conditions were 
almost quiet with periods when they reached Unsettled levels. 
In the Antarctica region Active and Minor Storm levels were also 
observed. Geomagnetic conditions in the Australian region are 
expected to be mostly Quiet to Unsettled on 28 May UT with a 
chance of Active periods. During 29-30 May UT geomagnetic conditions 
are expected to be more disturbed, Unsettled to Active, and can 
probably reach Minor Storm levels due to coronal hole effects.

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
27 May      Normal         Normal-fair    Normal-fair    

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
28 May      Normal         Normal-fair    Normal-fair
29 May      Normal         Normal-fair    Normal-fair
30 May      Normal         Normal-fair    Normal-fair

COMMENT: Conditions for HF radio wave propagation are expected 
to be normal to mildly depressed in the Northern and Southern 
Hemisphere during the next 3 days.

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
27 May    28

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Depressed by 15% during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Depressed by 15% during local day.
      Depressed by 25% during local night.
      Depressed by 20% after local dawn.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Depressed by 15% during local day.
      Depressed by 30% during local night.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Depressed by 20% during local day.
      Depressed by 25% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
Apr      30
May      47
Jun      46

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
28 May    30    Depressed 10 to 30%/near predicted monthly values
29 May    30    Depressed 10 to 30%/near predicted monthly values
30 May    30    Depressed 10 to 30%/near predicted monthly values

COMMENT: IPS HF Communications Warning 25 was issued on 26 May 
and is current for 26-28 May. Conditions for HF radio wave propagation 
were mildly depressed throughout the Australian region and near 
predicted monthly values in the Antarctic region during 27 May 
UT. Conditions are expected to remain mildly depressed throughout 
most of the Australian region during the next 3 days.

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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 26 May
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   2.9E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.3E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.90E+07   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 5%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B1.5

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 26 May
Speed: 354 km/sec  Density:    4.8 p/cc  Temp:    24300 K  Bz:   1 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
-----------------------------------------------------------

Space Weather Services              email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386                         WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA       FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010                fax: +61 2 9213 8060 

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