[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 24 May 16 issued 2330 UT on 24 May 2016 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]

Regional Warning Centre rwc at ips.gov.au
Wed May 25 09:30:37 EST 2016


SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/24 MAY 2016 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 24 MAY AND FORECAST FOR 25 MAY - 27 MAY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: ** YELLOW **
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 24 May:  Low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 24 May:  94/40


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             25 May             26 May             27 May
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    95/41              95/41              90/34

COMMENT: Solar X-ray flare activity was Low during 24 May UT. 
Active Region 2546 produced several B-class flares, the largest 
event was a C1 flare peaking at 10:20 UT. GONG Hydrogen alpha 
telescopes recorded an eruptive prominence on the limb in the 
northwest quadrant at 0433 UT. This prominence is not expected 
to have a geoeffective component. No Earth-directed CMEs were 
observed in the available LASCO imagery. Expect solar activity 
to remain Very Low with a chance for C-class flares which may 
be produced by AR 2546. The solar wind speed was fluctuating 
in the vicinity of 410 km/s during 24 May UT. The magnitude of 
the Interplanetary Magnetic Field (IMF) varied in the range 4-7 
nT and its component Bz was predominantly northward and fluctuating 
between about -5 nT and +7 nT. For the next 24 hours expect the 
solar wind speed will remain near its nominal value and late 
on 25 May UT in may increase due to a coronal hole effect.

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 24 May: Quiet

Estimated Indices 24 May : A   K           
   Australian Region       2   11121000
      Cocos Island         2   11121000
      Darwin               1   01001101
      Townsville           4   22121011
      Learmonth            3   21122000
      Alice Springs        2   11121000
      Norfolk Island       2   11121001
      Gingin               2   10122000
      Camden               4   12132001
      Canberra             2   01121000
      Melbourne            3   11132000
      Launceston           3   11132000
      Hobart               3   01131000    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 24 May :
      Macquarie Island     2   00031000
      Casey                6   23222101
      Mawson               8   33223102

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 24 May : 
      Darwin               8   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin               4   (Quiet)
      Canberra             6   (Quiet)
      Melbourne            9   (Quiet)

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 24 May : A 
           Fredericksburg         7
           Planetary              6                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 23 May :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         4
           Planetary              4   1112 1011     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
25 May     5    Quiet to Unsettled
26 May     7    Quiet to Unsettled
27 May    11    Unsettled to Active

COMMENT: Globally, geomagnetic conditions were Quiet to Unsettled 
during 24 May UT. Conditions were Quiet in the Australian region 
and reached Unsettled level in the Southern Australia and Antarctic 
region. Geomagnetic conditions in the Australian region are expected 
to be at Quiet to Unsettled levels on 25 May and can reach Active 
levels during 26-27 May.

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
24 May      Normal         Normal         Normal         

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
25 May      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
26 May      Normal         Normal-fair    Normal-fair
27 May      Normal         Normal-fair    Normal-fair

COMMENT: Conditions for HF radio wave propagation are expected 
to be mildly depressed in the Northern and Southern Hemisphere 
during the next 3 days.

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
24 May    28

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Depressed by 15% during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Depressed by 25% during local day.
      Depressed by 25% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Depressed by 25% during local night.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Depressed by 15% during local day.
      Depressed by 20% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
Apr      30
May      47
Jun      46

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
25 May    30    Near predicted monthly values/depressed 5 to 
                25%
26 May    30    Near predicted monthly values/depressed 5 to 
                25%
27 May    25    Depressed 5 to 30%/near predicted monthly values

COMMENT: Conditions for HF radio wave propagation were mildly 
depressed throughout the Australian region and near predicted 
monthly values in the Antarctic region during 24 May UT. Conditions 
are expected to remain mildly depressed throughout most of the 
Australian region during the next 3 days.

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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 23 May
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   1.5E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.3E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.50E+07   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 4%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B1.5

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 23 May
Speed: 493 km/sec  Density:    1.5 p/cc  Temp:   152000 K  Bz:   0 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
-----------------------------------------------------------

Space Weather Services              email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386                         WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA       FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010                fax: +61 2 9213 8060 

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