[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 23 May 16 issued 2330 UT on 23 May 2016 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]

Regional Warning Centre rwc at ips.gov.au
Tue May 24 09:30:28 EST 2016


SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/23 MAY 2016 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 23 MAY AND FORECAST FOR 24 MAY - 26 MAY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 23 May:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 23 May:  97/44


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             24 May             25 May             26 May
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    98/45              98/45              95/41

COMMENT: Solar X-ray flare activity was Very Low during 23 May 
UT. Active Region 2546 produced several B-class flares, the largest 
event was a B7 flare peaking approximately at 20:15 UT. GONG 
Hydrogen alpha telescopes recorded the lift off of a small dark 
filament near N18E25 approximately at 0630 UT. No Earth-directed 
CMEs were observed in the available LASCO imagery. Expect solar 
activity to remain Very Low with a slight chance for C-class 
flares which may be produced by AR 2546. The solar wind was gradually 
decreasing from 570 km/s to 410 km/s during 23 May UT. The magnitude 
of the Interplanetary Magnetic Field (IMF) varied in the range 
3-6 nT and the southward component Bz was fluctuating between 
about -2 nT to +4 nT. For the next 24 hours expect the solar 
wind speed and density to approach its nominal values.

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 23 May: Quiet

Estimated Indices 23 May : A   K           
   Australian Region       2   01120010
      Cocos Island         1   0-120010
      Darwin               2   10111110
      Townsville           2   11120011
      Learmonth            2   02120010
      Alice Springs        2   01120010
      Norfolk Island       1   01110001
      Gingin               2   12120010
      Camden               3   11121011
      Canberra             1   01120000
      Melbourne            1   01120000
      Launceston           2   02121000
      Hobart               1   01120000    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 23 May :
      Macquarie Island     1   00121000
      Casey                5   23221101
      Mawson              10   23332131

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 23 May : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            2   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin              17   (Quiet)
      Canberra            25   (Quiet to unsettled)
      Melbourne           43   (Unsettled)

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 23 May : A 
           Fredericksburg         5
           Planetary              5                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 22 May :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         5
           Planetary              7   2312 2112     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
24 May     5    Quiet
25 May     5    Quiet
26 May     5    Quiet

COMMENT: Globally, geomagnetic conditions were Quiet to Unsettled 
during 23 May UT. Conditions were Quiet in the Australian region 
and reached Unsettled level in the Antarctic region. Geomagnetic 
conditions in the Australian region are expected to be Quiet 
during 24-26 May.

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
23 May      Normal         Normal         Normal         

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
24 May      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
25 May      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
26 May      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair

COMMENT: Conditions for HF radio wave propagation are expected 
to be mildly depressed in the Northern and Southern Hemisphere 
during the next 3 days.

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
23 May    26

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values.
   Niue Island Region:
      Depressed by 25% during local day.
      Depressed by 30% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Depressed by 30% during local night.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Depressed by 20% during local day.
      Depressed by 25% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
Apr      30
May      47
Jun      46

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
24 May    30    Depressed 5 to 25%/near predicted monthly values
25 May    30    Depressed 5 to 25%/near predicted monthly values
26 May    40    Near predicted monthly values/depressed 5 to 
                25%

COMMENT: Conditions for HF radio wave propagation were mildly 
depressed throughout the Australian region during 23 May UT. 
Cocos Island was an exception: the preliminary daily T index 
was near the monthly predicted value. Conditions are expected 
to remain mildly depressed throughout most of the Australian 
region during the next 3 days.

-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 22 May
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   1.5E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.3E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.70E+07   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 3%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B1.6

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 22 May
Speed: 580 km/sec  Density:    1.1 p/cc  Temp:   258000 K  Bz:   0 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
-----------------------------------------------------------

Space Weather Services              email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386                         WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA       FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010                fax: +61 2 9213 8060 

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