[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 25 May 16 issued 2330 UT on 25 May 2016 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]

Regional Warning Centre rwc at ips.gov.au
Thu May 26 09:30:28 EST 2016


SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/25 MAY 2016 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 25 MAY AND FORECAST FOR 26 MAY - 28 MAY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: ** YELLOW **
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 25 May:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 25 May:  94/40


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             26 May             27 May             28 May
Activity     Very low to low    Very low to low    Very low to low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    95/41              90/34              85/27

COMMENT: Solar X-ray flare activity was Very Low during 25 May 
UT. Active Region 2546 produced several B-class flares. However, 
the largest event, B9 flare peaking approximately at 2115 UT, 
was produced by AR 2548. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed 
in the available LASCO imagery. Expect Very Low to Low solar 
activity due to a chance for C-class flares which may be produced 
by both AR 2546 and AR 2548. The solar wind speed was fluctuating 
in the vicinity of 430 km/s up to approximately 0645 UT, then 
it was gradually decreasing to 360 km/s. The magnitude of the 
Interplanetary Magnetic Field (IMF) varied in the range 4-6 nT 
and its component Bz was fluctuating between about -3 nT and 
+4 nT. For the next 24 hours expect the solar wind speed to start 
increasing due to a coronal hole effect.

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 25 May: Quiet

Estimated Indices 25 May : A   K           
   Australian Region       0   01010000
      Cocos Island         0   00110000
      Darwin               3   11111111
      Townsville           1   11100001
      Learmonth            0   01100000
      Alice Springs        0   01000000
      Norfolk Island       0   01000000
      Gingin               0   01000000
      Camden               2   11110101
      Canberra             0   01000000
      Melbourne            0   01010000
      Launceston           2   12010100
      Hobart               0   01010000    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 25 May :
      Macquarie Island     0   00010000
      Casey                4   13211100
      Mawson               6   12232111

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 25 May : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin               0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)
      Melbourne            4   (Quiet)

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 25 May : A 
           Fredericksburg         5
           Planetary              5                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 24 May :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         6
           Planetary              6   2102 2112     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
26 May    11    Quiet to Unsettled
27 May    11    Quiet to Unsettled
28 May     8    Quiet to Unsettled

COMMENT: Globally, geomagnetic conditions were Quiet during 25 
May UT. Conditions reached Unsettled level in the Antarctic region. 
Geomagnetic conditions in the Australian region are expected 
to be at Quiet to Unsettled levels during 26-28 May UT and can 
reach Active levels on 26 and 27 May UT.

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
25 May      Normal         Normal-fair    Normal-fair    

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
26 May      Normal         Normal-fair    Normal-fair
27 May      Normal         Normal-fair    Normal-fair
28 May      Normal         Normal-fair    Normal-fair

COMMENT: Conditions for HF radio wave propagation are expected 
to be mildly depressed in the Northern and Southern Hemisphere 
during the next 3 days.

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
25 May    22

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Depressed by 15% during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Depressed by 20% during local day.
      Depressed by 20% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Depressed by 15% during local day.
      Depressed by 35% during local night.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Depressed by 15% during local day.
      Depressed by 25% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
Apr      30
May      47
Jun      46

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
26 May    25    Depressed 10 to 35%/near predicted monthly values
27 May    25    Depressed 10 to 35%/near predicted monthly values
28 May    25    Depressed 5 to 30%/near predicted monthly values

COMMENT: Conditions for HF radio wave propagation were mildly 
depressed throughout the Australian region and near predicted 
monthly values in the Antarctic region during 25 May UT. Conditions 
are expected to remain mildly depressed throughout most of the 
Australian region during the next 3 days.

-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 24 May
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   1.2E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.3E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.80E+07   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 4%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B1.6

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 24 May
Speed: 419 km/sec  Density:    2.6 p/cc  Temp:    72700 K  Bz:   1 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
-----------------------------------------------------------

Space Weather Services              email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386                         WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA       FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010                fax: +61 2 9213 8060 

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