[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 17 May 16 issued 2330 UT on 17 May 2016 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]

Wed May 18 09:30:37 EST 2016

SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/17 MAY 2016 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 17 MAY AND FORECAST FOR 18 MAY - 20 MAY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:** YELLOW **     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 17 May:  Low

Flares: C class flare

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 17 May: 103/52

1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             18 May             19 May             20 May
Activity     Low                Very low to low    Very low to low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN   105/54             105/54             108/58

COMMENT: Solar flare activity was low during 17 May UT. Active 
Region 2542 is located beyond the western limb and produced the 
largest flare of the day, a C1.2 event peaking at 04:08 UT. Weak 
C class flare(s) may occur today. The strong CME launched toward 
the west on 15 May may glance Earth late today, 18 May. Coronal 
Hole (CH) 735 spans the solar equator and is rotating across 
the solar meridian. A frontal disturbance ahead of fast wind 
emanating from CH 735 is expected to impact Earth during 20-21 
May. The magnitude of the IMF varied between about 4 nT and 7 
nT and Bz fluctuated between about -6 nT and +5 nT during 17 
May. The solar wind speed is currently about 500 km/s.

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 17 May: Quiet to Unsettled

Estimated Indices 17 May : A   K           
   Australian Region       9   12333221
      Cocos Island         6   11223221
      Darwin               2   11111101
      Townsville          10   12333321
      Learmonth           13   12334332
      Alice Springs       10   12333322
      Norfolk Island       9   12333221
      Gingin              11   12333332
      Camden              10   22333321
      Canberra             9   12333221
      Melbourne           12   22443221
      Launceston          16   23444321
      Hobart              12   22443221    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 17 May :
      Macquarie Island    15   12453321
      Casey               26   24433463
      Mawson              26   34433355

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 17 May : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            2   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin              33   (Quiet to unsettled)
      Canberra            42   (Unsettled)
      Melbourne           40   (Quiet to unsettled)

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 17 May : A 
           Fredericksburg        11
           Planetary             12                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 16 May :  A   K
           Fredericksburg        15
           Planetary             14   3433 3333     

2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
18 May    15    Unsettled to Active
19 May    15    Unsettled to Active
20 May    20    Active

COMMENT: Geomagnetic conditions were quiet to unsettled during 
17 May UT. Conditions are expected to be quiet to unsettled for 
most of today, 18 May. However, they may reach active levels 
late in the day if the CME glances Earth. The arrival of a frontal 
disturbance ahead of fast wind emanating from CH 735 may drive 
a minor storm (G1, Kp=5) during 20-21 May.

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
17 May      Normal         Normal-fair    Normal-poor    

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
18 May      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
19 May      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
20 May      Normal         Normal-fair    Fair

COMMENT: Conditions for HF radio wave propagation are expected 
to be mildly depressed to near normal in both Hemispheres today, 
18 May UT.

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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY

Date   T index
17 May    39

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Niue Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Depressed by 15% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Depressed by 30% during local night.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Depressed by 25% over the UT day.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
Apr      30
May      47
Jun      46

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
18 May    40    Near predicted monthly values
19 May    40    Near predicted monthly values
20 May    40    Near predicted monthly values

COMMENT: Conditions for HF radio wave propagation were enhanced 
at Cocos Island (preliminary T=64), near normal at Brisbane, 
Sydney and Norfolk Island (T=41, 47 and 45), and mildly depressed 
at Darwin and Hobart (T=28, 30) during 17 May UT. Strong spread 
F conditions occurred at Hobart last night AEST. Conditions are 
expected to be mildly depressed to near normal throughout the 
Australian region today, 18 May.

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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 16 May
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   1.6E+06
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  3.5E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.30E+07   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 4%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B2.8

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 16 May
Speed: 482 km/sec  Density:    3.7 p/cc  Temp:   163000 K  Bz:  -1 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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Space Weather Services              email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386                         WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA       FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010                fax: +61 2 9213 8060 

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