[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 18 May 16 issued 2330 UT on 18 May 2016 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]

Regional Warning Centre rwc at ips.gov.au
Thu May 19 09:30:44 EST 2016 

SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/18 MAY 2016 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 18 MAY AND FORECAST FOR 19 MAY - 21 MAY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:** YELLOW **     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 18 May:  Very low

Flares: B class flare

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 18 May: 102/50


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             19 May             20 May             21 May
Activity     Very low to low    Very low to low    Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN   103/52             105/54             105/54

COMMENT: Solar flare activity was very low during 18 May UT. 
Active Region 2544 produced the largest flare of the day, a B 
5.1 event peaking at 17:58 UT. AR 2544 may produce a weak C class 
flare during the next 2 days. The background X ray flux has declined 
to low B levels. Coronal Hole (CH) 735 spans the solar equator 
and connects to a large Northern polar coronal hole. CH 735 has 
almost rotated into a geoeffective location. A frontal disturbance 
ahead of fast wind emanating from CH 735 is expected to impact 
Earth during 20 May. The magnitude of the IMF varied between 
about 5 nT and 7 nT and Bz fluctuated between about -5 nT and 
+5 nT during 18 May. The solar wind speed declined from about 
500 km/s to below 450 km/s. The solar wind speed may start to 
increase again late today.

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 18 May: Quiet

Estimated Indices 18 May : A   K           
   Australian Region       4   22222100
      Cocos Island         3   11222100
      Darwin               2   11111110
      Townsville           5   22222101
      Learmonth            5   22232100
      Alice Springs        4   22222100
      Norfolk Island       3   12221000
      Gingin               4   22222100
      Camden               5   22222101
      Canberra             4   12222100
      Melbourne            5   22232100
      Launceston           7   22233101
      Hobart               5   22232100    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 18 May :
      Macquarie Island     8   22343000
      Casey                9   43232100
      Mawson              24   35443315

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 18 May : 
      Darwin              NA
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin              21   (Quiet to unsettled)
      Canberra            29   (Quiet to unsettled)
      Melbourne           28   (Quiet to unsettled)

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 18 May : A 
           Fredericksburg         8
           Planetary              8                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 17 May :  A   K
           Fredericksburg        14
           Planetary             12   2342 2333     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
19 May    14    Unsettled to Active
20 May    18    Active
21 May    14    Unsettled to Active

COMMENT: Geomagnetic conditions were quiet throughout the Australian 
region during 18 May UT. Global conditions were quiet to unsettled. 
The maximum Kp value was 3. Conditions are expected to be quiet 
to unsettled for most of today, 19 May. However, they may reach 
active levels late today, 19 May. There is the possibility of 
a minor geomagnetic storm (Kp=5) during 20 May due to the arrival 
of the frontal disturbance ahead of fast wind emanating from 
CH 735.

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
18 May      Normal         Normal         Normal         

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
19 May      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
20 May      Normal         Normal-fair    Fair
21 May      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair

COMMENT: Conditions for HF radio wave propagation are expected 
to be mildly depressed to near normal in both Hemispheres today, 
19 May UT.

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
18 May    42

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Niue Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Depressed by 25% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Depressed by 35% during local night.
      Depressed by 20% after local dawn.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Depressed by 15% during local day.
      Depressed by 15% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
Apr      30
May      47
Jun      46

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
19 May    40    Near predicted monthly values
20 May    40    Near predicted monthly values
21 May    40    Near predicted monthly values

COMMENT: Conditions for HF radio wave propagation were mildly 
depressed throughout the Australian region during 18 May UT. 
The ionosphere above Darwin was disturbed during the evening 
of 18 May and early this morning AEST. Strong spread F conditions 
occurred at Hobart last night AEST. Conditions are expected to 
be mildly depressed again today, 19 May UT.

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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 17 May
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   5.8E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.4E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 3.90E+07   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 6%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B2.6

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 17 May
Speed: 514 km/sec  Density:    3.3 p/cc  Temp:   151000 K  Bz:   1 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
-----------------------------------------------------------

Space Weather Services              email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386                         WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA       FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010                fax: +61 2 9213 8060 

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