[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 16 May 16 issued 2330 UT on 16 May 2016 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Tue May 17 09:30:37 EST 2016
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/16 MAY 2016 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 16 MAY AND FORECAST FOR 17 MAY - 19 MAY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 16 May: Low
Flares: C class flares
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 16 May: 102/50
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
17 May 18 May 19 May
Activity Low Low Low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 102/50 100/48 100/48
COMMENT: Solar flare activity was low during 16 May UT. Active
Region 2544 (N20, W27) produced the largest flare of the day,
a C1.8 event peaking at 15:25 UT. C and B class flares are expected
to occur today, 17 May UT. A long duration C3.2 solar flare peaked
at 16:03 UT on 15 May and a strong CME was launched toward the
west in association with this event. The ACE spacecraft also
observed a minor increase in Solar Energetic Particles (SEP)
when the CME was launched. This suggests magnetic connectivity
between the flare region and the Earth. The CME is not Earthward
directed but a glancing blow at Earth is possible late on 18
May. The magnitude of the IMF varied between about 5 nT and 8
nT during 16 May and Bz fluctuated between about -6 nT and +6
nT. The solar wind speed is currently about 500 km/s.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 16 May: Quiet to Unsettled
Estimated Indices 16 May : A K
Australian Region 9 22333211
Cocos Island 7 12233111
Darwin 7 22223112
Townsville 8 22333111
Learmonth 9 22333221
Alice Springs 8 22333111
Norfolk Island 6 22232111
Culgoora 9 22332222
Camden 9 22333221
Canberra 7 12233211
Launceston 12 22343321
Hobart 9 12243211
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 16 May :
Macquarie Island 16 22255310
Casey 13 34432211
Mawson 19 24434324
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 16 May :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin NA
Canberra 19 (Quiet)
Melbourne 24 (Quiet to unsettled)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 16 May : A
Fredericksburg 15
Planetary 19
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 15 May : A K
Fredericksburg 12
Planetary 13 3232 3342
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
17 May 12 Unsettled
18 May 8 Quiet to Unsettled
19 May 15 Unsettled to Active
COMMENT: Geomagnetic conditions were quiet to unsettled during
16 May UT and they are expected to remain quiet to unsettled
today, 17 May. The CME launched to the west on 15 May may glance
Earth late on 18 May. If the CME does impact Earth, the geomagnetic
disturbance is likely to be minor, with conditions only reaching
active levels.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
16 May Normal Normal-fair Normal-poor
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
17 May Normal Normal Normal-fair
18 May Normal Normal Normal-fair
19 May Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: A major geomagnetic storm (Kp=7) occurred during 8-9
May UT. This caused depressed conditions for HF radio wave propagation
during 8-13 May. Conditions are expected to be depressed in the
Northern Hemisphere and mildly depressed to near normal in the
Southern Hemisphere during 17 May UT.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
16 May 38
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Enhanced by 40% during local day.
Enhanced by 40% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 25% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 30% during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Depressed by 15% over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Apr 30
May 47
Jun 46
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
17 May 40 Near predicted monthly values
18 May 40 Near predicted monthly values
19 May 40 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: IPS Preliminary HF Communications Warning 24 was issued
on 14 May and is current for 16-17 May. A major geomagnetic storm
(Kp=7) occurred during 8-9 May UT, causing depressed conditions
for HF radio wave propagation. The daily T index decreased to
T=9 on 10 May and has been trending back toward near predicted
monthly values in the Australian region. The preliminary daily
T index was 27 at Darwin and 43 at Sydney during 16 May UT. Conditions
for HF radio wave propagation are expected to be mildly depressed
to near normal throughout the Australian region today, 17 May.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 15 May
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 3.9E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 3.4E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 6.80E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B3.7
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 15 May
Speed: 420 km/sec Density: 5.0 p/cc Temp: 132000 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 fax: +61 2 9213 8060
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