[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 07 May 16 issued 2330 UT on 07 May 2016 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sun May 8 09:30:25 EST 2016
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/07 MAY 2016 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 07 MAY AND FORECAST FOR 08 MAY - 10 MAY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:** RED ** ION: ** YELLOW **
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 07 May: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 07 May: 88/32
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
08 May 09 May 10 May
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 85/27 85/27 85/27
COMMENT: Solar activity was at low levels during the last 24
hours. One C1.9 flare was observed from region 2541(N04E00) at
1713 UT/7 May. Against the expectations, solar wind stream showed
weakening during this period. Solar wind speed dropped down from
~~550 to ~450 km/s. The Bz component of IMF varied between +/-5
nT during most parts of the UT day today. Solar activity may
be expected to stay at very low levels during the next three
days (8, 9 and 10 May). A coronal hole effect may strengthen
the solar wind stream from 9 May.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 07 May: Quiet to unsettled
Estimated Indices 07 May : A K
Australian Region 4 21112102
Cocos Island 4 21112102
Darwin 4 21112102
Townsville 5 22122102
Learmonth 6 21222212
Alice Springs 3 21112101
Norfolk Island 3 21112101
Culgoora 7 2-----22
Gingin 5 21212212
Camden 4 21122101
Canberra 3 21112101
Launceston 6 22123202
Hobart 4 21113101
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 07 May :
Macquarie Island 5 21123101
Casey 12 34332212
Mawson 35 74342325
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 07 May :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 48 (Unsettled)
Canberra 56 (Unsettled)
Melbourne 117 (Major storm)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 07 May : A
Fredericksburg 8
Planetary 9
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 06 May : A K
Fredericksburg 12
Planetary 14 2222 3353
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
08 May 12 Quiet to active
09 May 25 Unsettled to minor storm
10 May 25 Unsettled to minor storm
COMMENT: IPS Geomagnetic Warning 17 was issued on 6 May and is
current for 7-9 May. Solar wind stream did not stay as strong
as anticipated for 7 May. Hence the geomagnetic activity also
did not rise to the expected levels. Activity is expected to
stay at quiet to active levels on 7 May and at unsettled to minor
storm levels on 9 and 10 May due to coronal hole effect.
-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
07 May Normal Normal-fair Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
08 May Normal Normal-fair Normal-fair
09 May Normal-fair Normal-fair Fair
10 May Normal-fair Normal-fair Fair
COMMENT: Minor to mild MUF depressions were observed today. Nearly
similar HF conditions may be expected on 8 May. Further degradation
in HF conditions and depressions in MUFs are possible on 9 and
10 May.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
07 May 27
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day.
Depressed by 25% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day.
Depressed by 20% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 25% during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Depressed by 20% during local day.
Depressed by 20% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Apr 30
May 47
Jun 46
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
08 May 30 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 5 to
20%
09 May 25 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
30%
10 May 25 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
30%
COMMENT: IPS Preliminary HF Communications Warning 22 was issued
on 6 May and is current for 7-9 May. Minor to mild MUF depressions
were observed in the Australian/NZ regions today. Nearly similar
HF conditions may be expected in this region on 8 May. Further
degradation in HF conditions and depressions in MUFs are possible
on 9 and 10 May in the region.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 06 May
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 2.8E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.3E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 5.70E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 7%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B2.2
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 06 May
Speed: 399 km/sec Density: 7.1 p/cc Temp: 85600 K Bz: -2 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 fax: +61 2 9213 8060
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