[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 08 May 16 issued 2330 UT on 08 May 2016 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]

Regional Warning Centre rwc at ips.gov.au
Mon May 9 09:30:30 EST 2016


SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/08 MAY 2016 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 08 MAY AND FORECAST FOR 09 MAY - 11 MAY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:** RED **     ION: ** YELLOW **
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 08 May:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 08 May:  84/26


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             09 May             10 May             11 May
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    85/27              85/27              90/34

COMMENT: Solar activity was at very low levels during the last 
24 hours. As expected, solar wind stream gained strength during 
this period. Solar wind speed increased from ~460 to above 700 
km/s today (8 May). The Bz component of IMF varied between +/-10 
nT during most parts of the UT day today, staying southwards 
for relatively longer periods of time. Solar activity may be 
expected to stay at very low levels during the next three days 
(9, 10 and 11 May) with some possibility of isolated C-class 
event. The coronal hole effect may keep the solar wind stream 
strong for the next three days.

-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 08 May: Unsettled to 
Minor Storm with some Major Storm periods

Estimated Indices 08 May : A   K           
   Australian Region      38   55545543
      Cocos Island        22   44344433
      Darwin              30   54445443
      Townsville          33   54445543
      Learmonth           46   55546643
      Alice Springs       36   55445543
      Norfolk Island      30   44544543
      Culgoora            63   6654656-
      Gingin              38   44446643
      Camden              43   55555553
      Canberra            33   44545543
      Launceston          49   55556554
      Hobart              42   45555554    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 08 May :
      Macquarie Island   107   57667865
      Casey               24   44434443
      Mawson             134   78855677

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 08 May : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            2   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin              27   (Quiet to unsettled)
      Canberra            19   (Quiet)
      Melbourne           46   (Unsettled)

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 08 May : A 
           Fredericksburg        39
           Planetary             65                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 07 May :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         9
           Planetary              9   4112 2213     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
09 May    35    Active to minor storm, isolated periods of major 
                storm possible
10 May    35    Active to minor storm, isolated periods of major 
                storm possible
11 May    30    Unsettled to active, isolated periods of minor 
                storm possible

COMMENT: IPS Geomagnetic Warning 17 was issued on 6 May and is 
current for 7-9 May. As expected, geomagnetic activity increased 
to minor storm levels on 8 May with isolated major storm periods. 
Due to a coronal hole effect nearly similar conditions may be 
expected on 9 and 10 May. Geomagnetic activity may start to show 
some weakening from 11 May.

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
08 May      Normal         Normal-fair    Normal         

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
09 May      Normal         Normal-fair    Fair-poor
10 May      Normal         Normal-fair    Fair-poor
11 May      Normal         Normal-fair    Fair

COMMENT: Minor to mild MUF depressions were observed in midlatitude 
regions today. Further degradation in HF conditions and depressions 
in MUFs are possible from 9 to 11 May, especially at mid and 
high latitude locations as geomagnetic activity is expected to 
remain enhanced on these days.

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
08 May    44

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values.
      Depressed by 20% after local dawn.
   Niue Island Region:
      No data available during local day.
      No data available during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Depressed by 25% during local night.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values.
      Depressed by 30% after local dawn.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Enhanced by 20% over the UT day.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
Apr      30
May      47
Jun      46

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
09 May    25    Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to 
                35%
10 May    25    Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to 
                35%
11 May    30    Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to 
                30%

COMMENT: IPS Preliminary HF Communications Warning 22 was issued 
on 6 May and is current for 7-9 May. Minor to mild MUF depressions 
were observed in the Australian/NZ regions today. Further degradation 
in HF conditions and depressions in MUFs are possible from 9 
to 11 May in the region as geomagnetic activity is expected to 
remain enhanced on these days.

-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 07 May
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   1.3E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.3E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 4.10E+06   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B2.1

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 07 May
Speed: 462 km/sec  Density:    4.4 p/cc  Temp:   133000 K  Bz:   1 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
-----------------------------------------------------------

Space Weather Services              email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386                         WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA       FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010                fax: +61 2 9213 8060 

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