[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 06 May 16 issued 2330 UT on 06 May 2016 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sat May 7 09:30:24 EST 2016
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/06 MAY 2016 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 06 MAY AND FORECAST FOR 07 MAY - 09 MAY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:** YELLOW ** ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 06 May: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 06 May: 90/34
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
07 May 08 May 09 May
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 85/27 85/27 85/27
COMMENT: Solar activity was at very low levels during the last
24 hours. Solar wind speed stayed between 350 and 400 km/s until around
2000UT and then showed a gradual increase to ~550 km/s by 2300
UT. The previously anticipated coronal hole effect seems to have
kicked in. The Bz component of IMF varied between +/-8 nT during
most parts of the UT day today. Solar activity may be expected
to stay at very low levels during the next three days (7, 8 and
9 May) with some possibility of isolated C-class events. Another
coronal hole effect may strengthen the solar wind stream from
9 May.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 06 May: Quiet to Active,
isolated minor storm periods.
Estimated Indices 06 May : A K
Australian Region 14 21134442
Cocos Island 8 21122332
Darwin 10 21123432
Townsville 14 11134442
Learmonth 13 21234432
Alice Springs 12 11134432
Norfolk Island 9 21123332
Gingin 15 21134443
Camden 14 11134442
Canberra 14 11134442
Launceston 19 22234543
Hobart 17 11234542
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 06 May :
Macquarie Island 25 12156442
Casey 16 34333341
Mawson 27 43333464
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 06 May :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Melbourne 8 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 06 May : A
Fredericksburg 11
Planetary 15
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 05 May : A K
Fredericksburg 7
Planetary 7 0113 2222
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
07 May 20 Unsettled to minor storm
08 May 20 Unsettled to minor storm
09 May 25 Unsettled to minor storm
COMMENT: Geomagnetic activity increased to active levels with
isolated minor storm periods on 6 May. Nearly similar conditions
may be expected on 7, 8 and 9 May.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
06 May Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
07 May Normal Normal-fair Fair
08 May Normal Normal-fair Fair
09 May Normal Normal-fair Fair
COMMENT: Minor to mild MUF depressions were observed today. Nearly
similar HF conditions may be expected on 7, 8 and 9 May.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
06 May 35
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Depressed by 20% during local day.
Depressed by 20% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day.
Depressed by 25% during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Apr 30
May 47
Jun 46
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
07 May 30 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 5 to
20%
08 May 30 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 5 to
20%
09 May 30 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 5 to
20%
COMMENT: Minor to mild MUF depressions were observed in the Australian/NZ
regions today. Nearly similar HF conditions may be expected in
this region on 7, 8 and 9 May.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 05 May
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 2.7E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.3E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.00E+08 (moderate fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:15%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B2.5
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 05 May
Speed: 383 km/sec Density: 5.1 p/cc Temp: 61800 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
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