[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 18 March 16 issued 2330 UT on 18 Mar 2016 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sat Mar 19 10:30:27 EST 2016
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/18 MARCH 2016 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 18 MARCH AND FORECAST FOR 19 MARCH - 21 MARCH
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 18 Mar: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 18 Mar: 90/34
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
19 Mar 20 Mar 21 Mar
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 90/34 85/27 85/27
COMMENT: Solar activity has been at very low levels today (18
March). The coronal hole effect is showing signs of weakening.
Solar wind speed gradually decreased from ~460 to 400 km/s. The
Bz component of IMF stayed mostly slightly negative up to -5nT
today. Solar wind stream is expected to show further weakening
over the next 24 to 48 hours as the coronal hole effect diminishes.
Very low levels of solar activity, with some possibility of isolated
C class activity, may be expected from 19 to 21 March.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 18 Mar: Quiet to Unsettled
Estimated Indices 18 Mar : A K
Australian Region 9 11233322
Cocos Island 5 12212212
Darwin 6 11222312
Townsville 7 11232321
Learmonth 9 22232322
Norfolk Island 5 10232211
Culgoora 8 11233312
Gingin 9 11233322
Canberra 7 11233212
Launceston 11 11343322
Hobart 8 11233321
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 18 Mar :
Macquarie Island 24 11266311
Casey 15 34432223
Mawson 21 32323355
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 18 Mar :
Darwin NA
Townsville NA
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Melbourne 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 18 Mar : A
Fredericksburg 8
Planetary 9
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 17 Mar : A K
Fredericksburg 16
Planetary 22 5533 3342
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
19 Mar 8 Quiet to Unsettled
20 Mar 6 Quiet
21 Mar 5 Quiet
COMMENT: Due to the weakening effect of a high speed solar wind
stream from a recurrent coronal hole geomagnetic activity dropped
down to mostly quiet to unsettled levels today (18 March) with
isolated active periods at high latitude locations. This coronal
hole effect is expected to further weaken over the next 24 to
48 hours (19, 20 March). Geomagnetic activity is expected to
gradually decline to unsettled through to quiet levels during
19 and 20 March. Quiet conditions are expected on 21 March.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
18 Mar Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
19 Mar Normal Normal Normal-fair
20 Mar Normal Normal Normal
21 Mar Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: Mostly normal HF conditions were observed during the
last 24 hours (18 March). Nearly similar conditions may be expected
for the next three days (19 to 21 March).
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
18 Mar 42
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Niue Island Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values.
Enhanced by 25% after local dawn.
Northern Australian Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values.
Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Depressed by 20% after local dawn.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Feb 64
Mar 50
Apr 51
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
19 Mar 50 Near predicted monthly values
20 Mar 55 Near predicted monthly values
21 Mar 60 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Mostly normal HF conditions were observed in the Aus/NZ
regions during the last 24 hours (18 March). Nearly similar conditions
may be expected in this region for the next three days (19 to
21 March).
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 17 Mar
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.5E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.4E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 8.70E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:10%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B1.6
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 17 Mar
Speed: 543 km/sec Density: 2.1 p/cc Temp: 191000 K Bz: -1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at ips.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
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