[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 17 March 16 issued 2330 UT on 17 Mar 2016 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Fri Mar 18 10:30:30 EST 2016
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/17 MARCH 2016 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 17 MARCH AND FORECAST FOR 18 MARCH - 20 MARCH
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 17 Mar: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 17 Mar: 92/37
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
18 Mar 19 Mar 20 Mar
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 95/41 95/41 90/34
COMMENT: Solar activity has been at very low levels over the
last 24 hours. The two CMEs mentioned in the report yesterday,
do not seem to have any geoeffective component. A solar filament
lifted off from N03E18 today (17 March/0415UT). No related CME
has been observed in the LASCO images so far. Two more small
CMEs (one from the Western limb at 0324 UT and another one from
South Western limb at 1200 UT) were observed in LASCO images.
Neither of these CMEs seem to have any geoeffective component.
Due to the continued coronal hole effect solar wind stream is
still going strong. Solar wind speed varied between between 450
and 550 km/s today. The IMF Bz component varied mostly between
+/-6nT during this time, staying southwards for relatively longer
periods of time. Solar wind stream is expected to remain strong
on 18 and then gradually weaken over the following two days thereafter.
Very low levels of solar activity, with some possibility of isolated
C class activity, may be expected from 18 to 20 March.
-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 17 Mar: Quiet to Unsettled
Estimated Indices 17 Mar : A K
Australian Region 10 23232322
Cocos Island 8 22232321
Darwin 9 23232321
Townsville 11 33232322
Learmonth 12 33233322
Norfolk Island 8 23231222
Culgoora 9 23232222
Gingin 11 32233322
Canberra 9 23232222
Launceston 16 34343322
Hobart 12 23333322
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 17 Mar :
Macquarie Island 29 45364332
Casey 19 34532333
Mawson 75 77543575
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 17 Mar :
Darwin NA
Townsville NA
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 34 (Quiet to unsettled)
Canberra 30 (Quiet to unsettled)
Melbourne 65 (Active)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 17 Mar : A
Fredericksburg 14
Planetary 21
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 16 Mar : A K
Fredericksburg 13
Planetary 17 5332 3134
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
18 Mar 12 Mostly quiet to unsettled, isolated active periods
possible
19 Mar 8 Quiet to Unsettled
20 Mar 6 Quiet
COMMENT: Due to the continued effect of a high speed solar wind
stream from a recurrent coronal hole geomagnetic activity reached
up to unsettled and active levels today with isolated minor storm
periods at high latitude locations. This coronal hole effect
may continue to raise geomagnetic activity to unsettled and at
times to active levels on 18 March. Geomagnetic activity is then
expected to gradually decline to unsettled through to quiet levels
during 19 and 20 March as the coronal hole effect is expected
to weaken that way.
-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
17 Mar Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
18 Mar Normal-fair Normal-fair Fair
19 Mar Normal Normal Normal-fair
20 Mar Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: Mostly normal to fair HF conditions were observed during
the last 24 hours. As anticipated periods of minor to moderate
MUF depressions were observed today due to continued increase
in geomagnetic activity levels. Nearly similar conditions may
be expected on 18 March. HF conditions are expected to return
to normal levels on 19 and 20 March.
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
17 Mar 32
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 30% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 25% during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Depressed by 25% during local day.
Depressed by 25% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Depressed by 20% over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Feb 64
Mar 50
Apr 51
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
18 Mar 45 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 5 to
20%
19 Mar 50 Near predicted monthly values
20 Mar 55 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Mostly normal to fair HF conditions were observed in
the Aus/NZ regions during the last 24 hours. As anticipated periods
of minor to moderate MUF depressions were observed today in this
region due to continued increase in geomagnetic activity levels.
Nearly similar conditions may be expected on 18 March. HF conditions
are expected to return to normal levels on 19 and 20 March.
-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 16 Mar
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.4E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 3.5E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 7.70E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 9%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B1.8
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 16 Mar
Speed: 486 km/sec Density: 3.2 p/cc Temp: 246000 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
-----------------------------------------------------------
Space Weather Services email: asfc at ips.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 fax: +61 2 9213 8060
IMPORTANT: This e-mail, including any attachments, may contain,
confidential or copyright information. The views expressed in
this message are those of the individual sender, unless
specifically stated to be the views of IPS. If you are not
the intended recipient, please contact the sender immediately
and delete all copies of this e-mail and attachments.
To unsubscribe from an IPS mail list either send an email to
"MAIL_LIST"-leave at ips.gov.au or go to
http://www.sws.bom.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/"MAIL_LIST".
Information about training can be obtained from
http://www.sws.bom.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/ips-training.
General information is available from
http://www.sws.bom.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/ips-info.
More information about the ips-dsgr
mailing list