[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 16 March 16 issued 2330 UT on 16 Mar 2016 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Thu Mar 17 10:30:30 EST 2016
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/16 MARCH 2016 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 16 MARCH AND FORECAST FOR 17 MARCH - 19 MARCH
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 16 Mar: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 16 Mar: 91/36
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
17 Mar 18 Mar 19 Mar
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 95/41 95/41 95/41
COMMENT: Solar activity has been at low levels over the last
24 hours. Today's largest event was a C2.2 flare from region
2522(N14W85). This flare peaked at 0646UT and was associated
with a Type II radio sweep and a coronal mass ejection. This
CME was first seen in the LASCO images at 0700UT. Another CME
from nearly the same location was observed in LASCO images from
0312 UT. Neither of these CMEs seem to have any geoeffective
component, but further analysis is required about their course.
Due to the continued coronal hole effect solar wind speed stayed
high around between 450 and 550 km/s today. The IMF Bz component
varied mostly between +/-7nT during this time. Solar wind stream
is expected to remain strong on 17 and then gradually weaken
over the following two days thereafter. Very low levels of solar
activity, with some possibility of isolated C class activity,
may be expected from 17 to 19 March.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 16 Mar: Quiet to active
with isolated minor storm periods
Estimated Indices 16 Mar : A K
Australian Region 13 32234133
Cocos Island 11 32233133
Darwin 12 32234132
Townsville 12 32234132
Learmonth 19 42235243
Norfolk Island 8 31233021
Culgoora 10 32233132
Gingin 17 41234144
Camden - --------
Canberra 10 31233132
Launceston 15 42334133
Hobart 15 42334133
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 16 Mar :
Macquarie Island 22 32355134
Casey 30 65434243
Mawson 48 74433266
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 16 Mar :
Darwin NA
Townsville NA
Learmonth 2 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 2 (Quiet)
Gingin 9 (Quiet)
Canberra 20 (Quiet)
Melbourne 35 (Quiet to unsettled)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 16 Mar : A
Fredericksburg 17
Planetary 21
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 15 Mar : A K
Fredericksburg 17
Planetary 20 3543 1243
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
17 Mar 15 Unsettled to Active
18 Mar 10 Unsettled
19 Mar 8 Quiet to Unsettled
COMMENT: Due to the continued effect of a high speed solar wind
stream from a recurrent coronal hole geomagnetic activity mostly
stayed at unsettled to active levels today with isolated minor
storm periods at high latitude locations. This coronal hole effect
may continue to raise geomagnetic activity to active levels on
17 March. Geomagnetic activity is then expected to gradually
decline to unsettled through to quiet levels during 18 and 19
March as the coronal hole effect is expected to weaken that way.
-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
16 Mar Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
17 Mar Normal-fair Normal-fair Fair-poor
18 Mar Normal Normal Normal-fair
19 Mar Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: Mostly normal to fair HF conditions were observed during
the last 24 hours. As anticipated periods of minor to moderate
MUF depressions were observed today due to increased geomagnetic
activity levels. Nearly similar conditions may be expected on
17 March. HF conditions are expected to return to normal levels
on 18 and 19 March.
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
16 Mar 51
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day.
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Depressed by 20% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Depressed by 20% over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Feb 64
Mar 50
Apr 51
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
17 Mar 50 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 5 to
20%
18 Mar 60 Near predicted monthly values
19 Mar 65 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Mostly normal to fair HF conditions were observed in
the Aus/NZ regions during the last 24 hours. As anticipated periods
of minor to moderate MUF depressions were observed today in this
region due to increased geomagnetic activity levels. Nearly similar
conditions may be expected on 17 March. HF conditions are expected
to return to normal levels on 18 and 19 March.
-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 15 Mar
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 2.9E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.3E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 4.60E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B1.9
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 15 Mar
Speed: 532 km/sec Density: 3.5 p/cc Temp: 201000 K Bz: -2 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at ips.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 fax: +61 2 9213 8060
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