[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 19 March 16 issued 2330 UT on 19 Mar 2016 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sun Mar 20 10:30:27 EST 2016
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/19 MARCH 2016 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 19 MARCH AND FORECAST FOR 20 MARCH - 22 MARCH
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 19 Mar: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 19 Mar: 89/33
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
20 Mar 21 Mar 22 Mar
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 90/34 90/34 85/27
COMMENT: Solar activity has been at very low levels today (19
March). Solar wind stream remained more steady today. Solar wind
speed stayed mostly between 400 and 450 km/s during this period.
The Bz component of IMF mostly varied between +/-7 nT showing
sustained periods on the negative side. Very low levels of solar
activity, with some possibility of isolated C class activity,
may be expected from 20 to 22 March.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 19 Mar: Quiet to Minor
Storm
Estimated Indices 19 Mar : A K
Australian Region 16 22354321
Cocos Island 6 11232310
Darwin 12 22244311
Townsville 13 12344322
Learmonth 17 22255321
Norfolk Island 12 11353211
Culgoora 15 12354311
Gingin 13 22244322
Canberra 14 12353321
Launceston 17 22454321
Hobart 17 22454321
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 19 Mar :
Macquarie Island 28 13565420
Casey 17 35333322
Mawson 35 34453654
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 19 Mar :
Darwin NA
Townsville NA
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 4 (Quiet)
Canberra 4 (Quiet)
Melbourne 4 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 19 Mar : A
Fredericksburg 15
Planetary 18
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 18 Mar : A K
Fredericksburg 6
Planetary 11 1133 3333
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
20 Mar 10 Quiet to Unsettled
21 Mar 5 Quiet
22 Mar 5 Quiet
COMMENT: Due to sustained periods of negative IMF Bz and relatively
stronger solar wind stream, some above expectation rises in geomagnetic
activity levels were observed today (19 March) at some mid and
high latitude locations. Solar wind stream is still going strong.
If Bz again goes negative for sufficiently long time, geomagnetic
activity may again show some rises to active levels on 20 March.
Else, mostly quiet to unsettled conditions on 20 March and mostly
quiet conditions on 21 and 22 March may be expected.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
19 Mar Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
20 Mar Normal Normal Normal-fair
21 Mar Normal Normal Normal
22 Mar Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: Varied HF conditions were observed in the low and mid
latitude regions during the last 24 hours (19 March). These regions
recorded periods of minor to moderate enhancements as well as
periods of depressions in MUFs. Mostly normal conditions may
be expected for the next three days (20 to 22 March).
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
19 Mar 33
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 35% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day.
Enhanced by 25% during local night.
Enhanced by 25% after local dawn.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 35% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Feb 64
Mar 50
Apr 51
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
20 Mar 40 Near predicted monthly values
21 Mar 50 Near predicted monthly values
22 Mar 50 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Varied HF conditions were observed in the Aus/NZ regions
during the last 24 hours (19 March). Almost all areas in the
region recorded periods of minor to moderate enhancements as
well as periods of depressions in MUFs. Mostly normal conditions
may be expected in this region for the next three days (20 to
22 March).
-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 18 Mar
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 3.6E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.3E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.90E+08 (moderate fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:15%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B1.2
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 18 Mar
Speed: 442 km/sec Density: 4.3 p/cc Temp: 47700 K Bz: -2 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at ips.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
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Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
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