[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 11 March 16 issued 2339 UT on 11 Mar 2016 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]

rwc rwc at ips.gov.au
Sat Mar 12 10:39:07 EST 2016


SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/11 MARCH 2016 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 11 MARCH AND FORECAST FOR 12 MARCH - 14 MARCH
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:** YELLOW **     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 11 Mar:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 11 Mar:  94/40


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             12 Mar             13 Mar             14 Mar
Activity     Very low to low    Very low to low    Very low to low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    95/41              95/41              95/41

COMMENT: Solar activity was Very Low over the last 24 hours. 
Solar activity is expected to be Very Low to Low for the next 
3 days. The IMF Bz reached -25 nT between 09UT-13UT and fluctuated 
between +/-13nT during this time likely due to transiting CME 
effects. After significant fluctuations, IMF Bz has settled back 
to +/-5 nT. Solar wind speed steadily increased to ~450km/s between 
04UT-19UT then increased to 600 Km/s and remained around this 
value at the time of this report. The increase in solar wind 
speed is attributed to a co-rotating interaction region (CIR) 
ahead of the coronal hole high speed solar wind stream. Solar 
wind speed is expected to remain elevated for the next two days 
due to the effects of a small coronal hole high speed solar wind 
stream. ACE EPAM data indicates an energetic ion enhancement 
event beginning 11/1840UT, which can be a precursor to increased 
geomagnetic activity over next 24-36 hours.

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 11 Mar: Quiet to Minor 
Storm

Estimated Indices 11 Mar : A   K           
   Australian Region      19   13345333
      Cocos Island        16   13245232
      Darwin              17   23345232
      Townsville          22   13346233
      Learmonth           26   23356333
      Norfolk Island      17   13345232
      Culgoora            18   13345233
      Gingin              18   23245333
      Camden              19   13345333
      Canberra            19   13345333
      Launceston          20   14345333
      Hobart              18   13345323    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 11 Mar :
      Macquarie Island    22   13346422
      Casey               20   34435133
      Mawson              26   43435335

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 11 Mar : 
      Darwin              NA
      Townsville          NA
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin               6   (Quiet)
      Canberra            12   (Quiet)
      Melbourne           NA

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 11 Mar : A 
           Fredericksburg        18
           Planetary             23                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 10 Mar :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         7
           Planetary              7   2222 2212     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
12 Mar    16    Quiet to Active.
13 Mar    10    Quiet to Unsettled
14 Mar    10    Quiet to Unsettled

COMMENT: A weak (14nT) impulse was observed at 0534UTIn in the 
SWS magnetometer data. Quiet to Minor Storm conditions observed 
over the last 24 hours due to CIR/CME effects. Quiet to unsettled 
conditions expected for 12-14 Mar with possible Active periods 
on day one, 12 Mar.

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
11 Mar      Normal         Normal         Normal         

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
12 Mar      Normal         Normal-fair    Normal-fair
13 Mar      Normal         Normal-fair    Normal-fair
14 Mar      Normal         Normal         Normal

COMMENT: Minor degradations in HF conditions may be observed 
over the next 24 hours.

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
11 Mar    55

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Enhanced by 25% during local day.
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
Feb      64
Mar      50
Apr      51

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
12 Mar    40    Near predicted monthly values
13 Mar    40    Near predicted monthly values
14 Mar    55    Near predicted monthly values

COMMENT: Mostly normal HF conditions observed on 11 March. Minor 
degradations in HF conditions may be observed on 12-13 March 
in response of elevated geomagnetic activity.

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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 10 Mar
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   7.8E+04
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.3E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 6.30E+07   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 8%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B1.6

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 10 Mar
Speed: 340 km/sec  Density:    5.5 p/cc  Temp:    38600 K  Bz:  -3 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
-----------------------------------------------------------

Space Weather Services              email: asfc at ips.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386                         WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA       FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010                fax: +61 2 9213 8060 

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