[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 10 March 16 issued 2330 UT on 10 Mar 2016 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]

Regional Warning Centre rwc at ips.gov.au
Fri Mar 11 10:30:29 EST 2016 

SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/10 MARCH 2016 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 10 MARCH AND FORECAST FOR 11 MARCH - 13 MARCH
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 10 Mar:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 10 Mar:  95/41


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             11 Mar             12 Mar             13 Mar
Activity     Very low to low    Very low to low    Very low to low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    95/41              95/41              95/41

COMMENT: Solar activity was Very Low over the last 24 hours. 
The largest event was a B8.4 flare from region 2512(N12W79) at 
1854 UT. An erupting prominence was detected on the limb in North-West 
quadrant at 1848 UT. No Earth-directed CMEs were detected in 
the available imagery. Solar activity is expected to be Very 
Low to Low for 11-13 March. Solar wind speed stayed ~ 325 km/s. 
The Bz component of the IMF varied between +2/-5 nT, predominately 
southward (-4 nT). Solar wind speed is expected to remain at 
nominal levels over the next 24 hours, then gradually increase 
on days two and three as a small coronal hole moves into a geoeffective 
location.

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 10 Mar: Quiet

Estimated Indices 10 Mar : A   K           
   Australian Region       5   12112221
      Cocos Island         4   11012221
      Darwin               5   21112221
      Townsville           5   12112221
      Learmonth            5   21112222
      Norfolk Island       3   01112121
      Culgoora             5   12112221
      Gingin               5   21112222
      Camden               5   12122221
      Canberra             5   12112221
      Launceston           7   12223221
      Hobart               6   12123221    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 10 Mar :
      Macquarie Island     8   12233310
      Casey               11   33322223
      Mawson              21   54323225

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 10 Mar : 
      Darwin              NA
      Townsville          NA
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin               2   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)
      Melbourne           NA

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 10 Mar : A 
           Fredericksburg         9
           Planetary             10                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 09 Mar :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         6
           Planetary              5   2122 1202     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
11 Mar     5    Quiet
12 Mar    12    Quiet to Unsettled
13 Mar    10    Quiet to Unsettled

COMMENT: Geomagnetic conditions were Quiet over the Australian 
region during last 24 hours. Conditions are expected to remain 
mostly Quiet for the next 24 hours. On the day 2 (12 March), 
conditions might reach Unsettled levels due to minor coronal 
hole effects.

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
10 Mar      Normal         Normal         Normal         

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
11 Mar      Normal         Normal         Normal
12 Mar      Normal         Normal-fair    Normal-fair
13 Mar      Normal         Normal-fair    Normal-fair

COMMENT: Mostly normal HF conditions are expected over the next 
24 hours.

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
10 Mar    50

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values.
   Niue Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Depressed by 20% during local day.
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
Feb      64
Mar      50
Apr      51

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
11 Mar    50    Near predicted monthly values
12 Mar    40    Near predicted monthly values
13 Mar    40    Near predicted monthly values

COMMENT: MUFs were near predicted monthly values during the UT 
day, 10 March. Similar conditions are expected on 11 March. Minor 
degradations in HF conditions may be observed on 12-13 March.

-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 09 Mar
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   1.5E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.3E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.90E+08   (moderate fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:15%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B1.8

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 09 Mar
Speed: 378 km/sec  Density:    5.0 p/cc  Temp:    42100 K  Bz:  -2 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
-----------------------------------------------------------

Space Weather Services              email: asfc at ips.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386                         WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA       FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010                fax: +61 2 9213 8060 

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