[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 09 March 16 issued 2330 UT on 09 Mar 2016 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Thu Mar 10 10:30:29 EST 2016
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/09 MARCH 2016 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 09 MARCH AND FORECAST FOR 10 MARCH - 12 MARCH
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 09 Mar: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 09 Mar: 97/44
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
10 Mar 11 Mar 12 Mar
Activity Very low to low Very low to low Very low to low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 100/48 100/48 100/48
COMMENT: Solar activity was Low over the last 24 hours. The largest
event was a C3 flare from region 2519(N06E76) at 1250 UT. Solar
activity is expected to be very Low to Low for 10-12 March. Solar
wind speed continued decreasing to be 375km/s at the time of
this report. The Bz component of the IMF varied between +/-5nT.
Solar wind speed is expected to be at nominal levels over the
next 24 hours.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 09 Mar: Quiet
Estimated Indices 09 Mar : A K
Australian Region 5 11122221
Cocos Island 3 11012121
Darwin 4 11122111
Townsville 4 11122211
Learmonth 5 11122221
Norfolk Island 3 01122111
Culgoora 4 01122211
Gingin 6 11132222
Camden 4 11122211
Canberra 4 01122211
Melbourne 7 11233221
Launceston 8 11233321
Hobart 9 -3133221
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 09 Mar :
Macquarie Island 9 01144300
Casey 10 33332221
Mawson 14 23222325
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 09 Mar :
Darwin NA
Townsville NA
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 2 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Melbourne 11 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 09 Mar : A
Fredericksburg 7
Planetary 6
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 08 Mar : A K
Fredericksburg 6
Planetary 7 2222 3222
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
10 Mar 5 Quiet
11 Mar 5 Quiet
12 Mar 5 Quiet
COMMENT: Geomagnetic conditions were mostly Quiet over the Australian
region during last 24 hours. Conditions are expected to remain
mostly Quiet for the next three days.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
09 Mar Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
10 Mar Normal Normal Normal
11 Mar Normal Normal Normal
12 Mar Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: Mostly normal HF conditions are expected over the next
24 hours.
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
09 Mar 52
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 25% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 20% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Feb 64
Mar 50
Apr 51
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
10 Mar 50 Near predicted monthly values
11 Mar 50 Near predicted monthly values
12 Mar 50 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: MUFs were near predicted monthly values during the UT
day, 9 March. Enhanced MUFs observed in equatorial region local
night. Similar conditions are expected over the next few days.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 08 Mar
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.5E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.3E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.10E+08 (moderate fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:11%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B1.6
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 08 Mar
Speed: 463 km/sec Density: 3.4 p/cc Temp: 69000 K Bz: -1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at ips.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
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