[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 08 March 16 issued 2330 UT on 08 Mar 2016 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Wed Mar 9 10:30:29 EST 2016
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/08 MARCH 2016 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 08 MARCH AND FORECAST FOR 09 MARCH - 11 MARCH
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 08 Mar: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 08 Mar: 96/43
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
09 Mar 10 Mar 11 Mar
Activity Very low to low Very low to low Very low to low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 100/48 100/48 95/41
COMMENT: Solar activity was Low over the last 24 hours with new
emerging region 2511(N02W34)the source of an impulsive C1 flare
at 1306UT as well as two B-Class flares. An eruptive filament
was observed on the Southwest Quadrant after 07/2300UT. Confirmation
of any earth directed CME via SOHO LASCO imagery was not possible
at the time of this report. Solar wind speed has steadily decreased
to be currently 420km/s. The Bz component of the IMF remained
neutral for the majority of the UT day. Solar activity is expected
to be very Low to Low for 09-11 March. Solar wind speed is expected
to continue declining towards ambient levels as the effects of
the coronal hole wane.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 08 Mar: Quiet to Unsettled
Estimated Indices 08 Mar : A K
Australian Region 6 21123211
Cocos Island 2 111-1110
Darwin 4 11112211
Townsville 5 11123211
Learmonth 6 21123221
Norfolk Island 4 11122112
Culgoora 6 21123211
Gingin 5 21113220
Camden 6 21123211
Canberra 6 21123211
Melbourne 8 2222322-
Launceston 8 22223311
Hobart 8 222232--
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 08 Mar :
Macquarie Island 11 21225311
Casey 15 35432121
Mawson 32 54533255
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 08 Mar :
Darwin NA
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 61 (Active)
Canberra 33 (Quiet to unsettled)
Melbourne 63 (Active)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 08 Mar : A
Fredericksburg 7
Planetary 10
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 07 Mar : A K
Fredericksburg 17
Planetary 18 4432 2334
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
09 Mar 10 Quiet to Unsettled
10 Mar 5 Quiet
11 Mar 5 Quiet
COMMENT: Quiet to Unsettled conditions observed for the Australian
region over the last 24 hours due to the waning effects of the
coronal hole. The outlook for 09-11 March is for mostly Quiet
conditions and possibly some isolated unsettled periods over
the 24 hours.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
08 Mar Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
09 Mar Normal Normal Normal
10 Mar Normal Normal Normal
11 Mar Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: Mostly normal HF conditions are expected over the next
24 hours.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
08 Mar 37
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 20% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 20% during local day.
Depressed by 20% during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Depressed by 20% during local day.
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Feb 64
Mar 50
Apr 51
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
09 Mar 45 Near predicted monthly values
10 Mar 50 Near predicted monthly values
11 Mar 50 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Minor to moderate depressions in MUFs and degradations
in HF conditions were observed on 08 March. Periods of SF conditions
continue to be observed at some mid-latitude locations today.
Mostly normal HF conditions are expected over the next few days.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 07 Mar
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 2.3E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.2E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 8.40E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 2%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B1.4
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 07 Mar
Speed: 548 km/sec Density: 1.4 p/cc Temp: 157000 K Bz: -2 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at ips.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
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