[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 12 March 16 issued 2342 UT on 12 Mar 2016 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sun Mar 13 10:42:14 EST 2016
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/12 MARCH 2016 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 12 MARCH AND FORECAST FOR 13 MARCH - 15 MARCH
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:** YELLOW ** ION: GREEN
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 12 Mar: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 12 Mar: 95/41
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
13 Mar 14 Mar 15 Mar
Activity Very low to low Very low to low Very low to low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 95/41 95/41 90/34
COMMENT: Solar activity was Low over the last 24 hours with region
2513 (N10W57)the source of an impulsive C1 flare at 0619UT. SOHO
C2 imagery shows a partial halo CME first noted at 0012, is not
likely to effect earth. SDO imagery observed a filament eruption
on the NE Quadrant after 1600UT. Confirmation of any associated
CME via SOHO LASCO imagery was not possible at the time of this
report. Solar wind speed has steadily decreased to be currently
475km/s. The Bz component of the IMF remained neutral for the
majority of the UT day. Solar activity is expected to be very
Low to Low for 13-15 March. Solar wind speed is expected to continue
declining towards ambient levels next 2 days. Elevated levels
of solar wind speeds are expected on day 3 as a large recurrent
southern hemisphere coronal hole approaches geoeffective location
on the solar disk.
-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 12 Mar: Quiet
Estimated Indices 12 Mar : A K
Australian Region 5 22121221
Cocos Island 4 22110221
Darwin 5 22121221
Townsville 6 22121321
Learmonth 7 22221321
Norfolk Island 5 22120221
Culgoora 5 22121221
Gingin 5 22120221
Camden 6 22121321
Canberra 5 22120221
Launceston 7 23221222
Hobart 6 23211221
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 12 Mar :
Macquarie Island 9 22211341
Casey 18 45432222
Mawson 17 44332342
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 12 Mar :
Darwin NA
Townsville NA
Learmonth 2 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 48 (Unsettled)
Canberra 103 (Major storm)
Melbourne 143 (Severe storm)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 12 Mar : A
Fredericksburg 13
Planetary 15
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 11 Mar : A K
Fredericksburg 21
Planetary 17 1233 5342
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
13 Mar 10 Quiet to Unsettled
14 Mar 7 Quiet
15 Mar 20 Quiet to Active
COMMENT: Geomagnetic conditions were mostly Quiet over the Australian
region during last 24 hours. Conditions are expected to remain
mostly Quiet for 13-14 March. Currently IMF Bz orientation is
northwards. Unsettled geomagnetic condition could occur if the
IMF Bz turns strongly southward for prolonged periods. Quiet
to Active conditions with possible Minor Storm periods for 15
March due to coronal hole effects.
-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
12 Mar Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
13 Mar Normal Normal Normal
14 Mar Normal Normal Normal
15 Mar Normal Normal-fair Normal-fair
COMMENT: Mostly normal HF conditions may be observed over the
next 24 hours.
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
12 Mar 42
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Niue Island Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day.
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian Region:
Depressed by 25% during local day.
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Feb 64
Mar 50
Apr 51
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
13 Mar 40 Near predicted monthly values
14 Mar 55 Near predicted monthly values
15 Mar 30 10 to 20% below predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Minor degradations in HF conditions observed in Aus/NZ
regions on 12 March in response of elevated geomagnetic activity.
Mostly normal HF conditions are expected over the next two days.
Degradations in HF conditions may be observed from 15 March in
response of anticipated elevated geomagnetic activity.
-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 11 Mar
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 3.4E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.3E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 9.80E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 2%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B1.4
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 11 Mar
Speed: 375 km/sec Density: 10.0 p/cc Temp: 98800 K Bz: 2 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
-----------------------------------------------------------
Space Weather Services email: asfc at ips.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 fax: +61 2 9213 8060
IMPORTANT: This e-mail, including any attachments, may contain,
confidential or copyright information. The views expressed in
this message are those of the individual sender, unless
specifically stated to be the views of IPS. If you are not
the intended recipient, please contact the sender immediately
and delete all copies of this e-mail and attachments.
To unsubscribe from an IPS mail list either send an email to
"MAIL_LIST"-leave at ips.gov.au or go to
http://www.sws.bom.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/"MAIL_LIST".
Information about training can be obtained from
http://www.sws.bom.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/ips-training.
General information is available from
http://www.sws.bom.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/ips-info.
More information about the ips-dsgr
mailing list