[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 04 March 16 issued 2332 UT on 04 Mar 2016 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sat Mar 5 10:32:28 EST 2016
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/04 MARCH 2016 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 04 MARCH AND FORECAST FOR 05 MARCH - 07 MARCH
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:** YELLOW ** ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 04 Mar: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 04 Mar: 101/49
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
05 Mar 06 Mar 07 Mar
Activity Very low to low Very low to low Very low to low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 105/54 105/54 105/54
COMMENT: The solar activity was at low levels for the UT day,
4 March, with only one weak C-class (C1.1) flares. The C1.1 flare
peaked at 04/0900 UT and was from Region 2506, which was located
near the west limb at the time of flaring. According to the LASCO
coronagraph imagery, this event seem to have triggered a Coronal
Mass Ejections (CME). More updates on the effect of this event
on earth will be provided after the completion of the model runs.
There are currently ten numbered Earth-facing sunspot regions
on the solar disk. The 2-day outlook (5-6 March) is for low solar
activity with chance of C-class flares. The eruptive filament
that was observed near the solar centre (~S10W05) at about 03/1419
UT had triggered a CME. However, the LASCO coronagraph imagery
data were missing for the time interval relevant to this event.
Based on the location of the erupting filament and the trajectory
of the CME, this event may have an impact at earth on UT day
6 March or thereabout. The solar wind has gradually declined
from ~430 km/s to ~300 km/s during the past 24 hrs. This observed
declining trend in the solar wind speeds is in response to the
waning effect of the northern hemisphere coronal hole. The Bz
component of the IMF fluctuated between -2 nT and 6 nT. Bt was
nearly constant, near 5 nT throughout the UT day. The 2-day outlook
(5-6 March) is for the solar winds to again gradually increase
as a new, small equatorial coronal hole moves into a geoeffective
location.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 04 Mar: Quiet
Estimated Indices 04 Mar : A K
Australian Region 2 21000101
Cocos Island 1 21000000
Darwin 1 11100101
Townsville 2 21100101
Learmonth 3 31000101
Norfolk Island 2 21000011
Culgoora 2 21000101
Gingin 2 31000100
Camden 2 21010101
Canberra 1 11000100
Melbourne 2 21010100
Launceston 2 22010100
Hobart 2 21010100
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 04 Mar :
Macquarie Island 1 21010000
Casey 6 33221101
Mawson 6 43111100
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 04 Mar :
Darwin NA
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 2 (Quiet)
Melbourne 17 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 04 Mar : A
Fredericksburg 4
Planetary 5
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 03 Mar : A K
Fredericksburg 7
Planetary 6 1313 1111
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
05 Mar 8 Quiet to Unsettled
06 Mar 16 Active
07 Mar 8 Quiet to Unsettled
COMMENT: The geomagnetic conditions were mostly quiet during
the last 24 hours (4 March). The outlook for UT day 5 March is
for mostly quiet to unsettled geomagnetic conditions. These conditions
are forecasted in response to the expected arrival of CIR and
subsequent high speed solar wind streams from by a small equatorial
coronal hole moving into a geoeffective location on the solar
disk. On UT day 6 March, active and at times possibly reaching
minor storm levels is anticipated. Active conditions on 6 March
is due to the coronal hole effects, combined with the possible
arrival of the 03 March CME. There is chance that aurora may
be visible from high magnetic latitudes regions of Australia,
including Tasmania and some parts of Victoria.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
04 Mar Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
05 Mar Normal Normal Normal-fair
06 Mar Normal Normal-fair Fair
07 Mar Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: Observed MUF's for the UT day 4 March were slightly
above the predicted monthly values. Similar conditions are expected
for UT day 5 March in the mid and low latitudes regions. The
high latitude regions could experience MUF depressions associated
with forecasted active geomagnetic conditions.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
04 Mar 74
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 20% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 25% during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Feb 64
Mar 50
Apr 51
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
05 Mar 70 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
06 Mar 70 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
07 Mar 50 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: The observed MUFs for the Australian region on UT day
4 March were slightly higher than the predicted monthly MUF values.
Similar HF conditions are expected for the next two days. Minor
degradation of MUFs are expected on UT day 07 March in response
of active geomagnetic conditions associated with the equatorial
coronal hole and the possible arrival of the 3 March CME.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 03 Mar
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.9E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.4E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 6.50E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B1.2
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 03 Mar
Speed: 438 km/sec Density: 3.1 p/cc Temp: 77400 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at ips.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 fax: +61 2 9213 8060
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