[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 05 March 16 issued 2330 UT on 05 Mar 2016 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sun Mar 6 10:30:30 EST 2016
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/05 MARCH 2016 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 05 MARCH AND FORECAST FOR 06 MARCH - 08 MARCH
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:** YELLOW ** ION: GREEN
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 05 Mar: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 05 Mar: 96/43
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
06 Mar 07 Mar 08 Mar
Activity Very low to low Very low to low Very low to low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 95/41 95/41 95/41
COMMENT: The solar activity was at very low levels for the UT
day, 5 March, with no C-class flares. There are currently ten
numbered Earth facing sunspot regions on the solar disk. The
2-day outlook (6-7 March) is for very low solar activity with
small chance of C-class flares. The effects of the CME, if any,
associated with the 3 March eruptive filament from near the solar
centre is anticipated to arrive within the next 24 to 48 hrs.
The LASCO coronagraph imagery data were missing for the time
interval relevant to this event, so no further confirmation could
be provided. No Earth directed CMEs were observed in the last
24 hours. The solar wind has been steady near the ambient levels
of ~350 km/s during the past 24 hrs. The Bz component of the
IMF fluctuated between -5 nT and 6 nT. Bt was nearly constant,
near 5 nT throughout the UT day. The solar wind densities has
gradually enhanced in the last 12 hours ( from 05/0900 UT ) possibly
in response to the expected arrival of the CIR associated with
a small equatorial coronal hole. The 2-day outlook (6-7 March)
is for the solar winds to again gradually increase to moderate
levels as the high speed solar wind streams following the CIR
comes into effect.
-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 05 Mar: Quiet
Estimated Indices 05 Mar : A K
Australian Region 3 11122001
Cocos Island 2 10112000
Darwin 2 10111101
Townsville 3 11112101
Learmonth 2 10112001
Norfolk Island 3 10121012
Culgoora 2 01122001
Gingin 2 11112001
Camden 3 11122101
Canberra 2 01122001
Melbourne 3 11222001
Launceston 3 11222001
Hobart 3 01222000
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 05 Mar :
Macquarie Island 5 00143000
Casey 8 23332101
Mawson 11 13233233
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 05 Mar :
Darwin NA
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Melbourne 4 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 05 Mar : A
Fredericksburg 4
Planetary 5
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 04 Mar : A K
Fredericksburg 2
Planetary 3 3100 0100
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
06 Mar 16 Active
07 Mar 8 Quiet to Unsettled
08 Mar 6 Quiet
COMMENT: IPS Geomagnetic Warning 8 was issued on 5 March and
is current for 6-7 Mar. The geomagnetic conditions were mostly
quiet during the last 24 hours (5 March). The outlook for UT
day 6 March is for mostly active geomagnetic conditions, which
at times could possibly reach minor storm levels. These conditions
are forecasted in response to a small equatorial coronal hole
moving into a geoeffective location on the solar disk. On UT
day 7 March, geomagnetic conditions are expected to trend towards
mostly unsettled levels as the coronal effects begin to wane.
There is chance that aurora may be visible from high magnetic
latitude regions of Australia, including Tasmania and some parts
of Victoria, at the local night of 6 March.
-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
05 Mar Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
06 Mar Normal Normal Normal-fair
07 Mar Normal Normal-fair Fair
08 Mar Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: Observed MUF's for the UT day 5 March were above the
predicted monthly values. Similar conditions are expected for
UT day 6 March in the mid and low latitudes regions. The high
latitude regions could experience MUF depressions associated
with forecasted active geomagnetic conditions.
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
05 Mar 80
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 30% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Enhanced by 30% during local day.
Enhanced by 50% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 25% during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Enhanced by 20% over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Feb 64
Mar 50
Apr 51
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
06 Mar 80 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
07 Mar 50 Near predicted monthly values
08 Mar 60 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: The observed MUFs for the Australian region on UT day
5 March were higher than the predicted monthly MUF values. Near
or above monthly predicted MUFs are expected for the next three
days. Minor degradation of MUFs are expected on UT day 07 March,
though these are expected to be near the monthly median. The
possible degradations on UT day 07 March is forecasted in response
to the active geomagnetic conditions on 6 March associated with
the equatorial coronal hole and the possible arrival of the 3
March CME effects at earth. Drop in ionospheric densities are
usually delayed by up to 24 hrs after the onset of storms.
-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 04 Mar
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.4E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.3E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.00E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 2%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B1.5
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 04 Mar
Speed: 384 km/sec Density: 2.8 p/cc Temp: 49300 K Bz: 1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
-----------------------------------------------------------
Space Weather Services email: asfc at ips.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 fax: +61 2 9213 8060
IMPORTANT: This e-mail, including any attachments, may contain,
confidential or copyright information. The views expressed in
this message are those of the individual sender, unless
specifically stated to be the views of IPS. If you are not
the intended recipient, please contact the sender immediately
and delete all copies of this e-mail and attachments.
To unsubscribe from an IPS mail list either send an email to
"MAIL_LIST"-leave at ips.gov.au or go to
http://www.sws.bom.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/"MAIL_LIST".
Information about training can be obtained from
http://www.sws.bom.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/ips-training.
General information is available from
http://www.sws.bom.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/ips-info.
More information about the ips-dsgr
mailing list