[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 03 March 16 issued 2330 UT on 03 Mar 2016 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]

Regional Warning Centre rwc at ips.gov.au
Fri Mar 4 10:30:27 EST 2016


SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/03 MARCH 2016 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 03 MARCH AND FORECAST FOR 04 MARCH - 06 MARCH
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 03 Mar:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 03 Mar:  99/46


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             04 Mar             05 Mar             06 Mar
Activity     Very low to low    Very low to low    Very low to low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN   100/48             100/48             100/48

COMMENT: The solar activity was at very low levels for the UT 
day, 3 March, with no C-class flares. There are currently seven 
numbered Earth-facing sunspot regions on the solar disk. The 
2-day outlook (4-5 March) is for very low solar activity with 
weak chance of smaller C-class flares. A eruptive filament,approximately 
10 degrees long, was observed near the solar centre (~S10W05) 
at about 03/1419 UT. Inspection of the SDO imagery reveals that 
this event has triggered a Coronal Mass Ejections (CME). No LASCO 
coronagraph imagery were available at the time of writing this 
report. Based on the location of the erupting filament and the 
trajectory of the possible CME, this event may have an impact 
at earth. Updates on this events will be provided when the LASCO 
coronagraph imagery data is made available. The solar wind has 
been nearly constant, at the elevated level of almost 500 km/s 
during the past 24 hrs. These moderately high solar wind speeds 
are associated with high speed streams emanating from a northern 
hemisphere coronal hole. The Bz component of the IMF fluctuated 
between -4 nT and 6 nT. Bt was nearly constant, near 5 nT throughout 
the UT day. The outlook for 4 March is for the solar winds to 
gradually trend towards ambient levels as the effects of this 
coronal hole wanes. On UT day 5 March, the solar winds is expected 
to again gradually increase as a new, equatorial coronal holes 
moves into a geoeffective location.

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 03 Mar: Quiet

Estimated Indices 03 Mar : A   K           
   Australian Region       7   22223202
      Cocos Island         3   12122100
      Darwin               7   22223202
      Townsville           7   22223212
      Learmonth            6   22223102
      Norfolk Island       4   12122111
      Culgoora             6   22222202
      Gingin               6   22223102
      Camden               8   22233212
      Canberra             6   12232202
      Melbourne            8   22233202
      Launceston          10   23233213
      Hobart               8   13233202    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 03 Mar :
      Macquarie Island     8   12243201
      Casey               15   35432112
      Mawson              12   33332114

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 03 Mar : 
      Darwin              NA
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin               0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             4   (Quiet)
      Melbourne           15   (Quiet)

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 03 Mar : A 
           Fredericksburg         8
           Planetary              8                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 02 Mar :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         7
           Planetary              5   2002 2211     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
04 Mar     6    Quiet
05 Mar     8    Quiet to Unsettled
06 Mar    10    Quiet to Unsettled

COMMENT: The geomagnetic conditions were mostly quiet during 
the last 24 hours (3 March). The outlook for UT day 4 March is 
for mostly quiet geomagnetic conditions and at times could reach 
unsettled levels. These conditions are forecasted due to the 
persisting moderately high solar wind speeds associated with 
the Northern Hemisphere coronal hole. Similar conditions are 
expected for UT day 5 and 6 March in response to a new equatorial 
coronal holes moving into a geoeffective location by 5 March. 
These forecast for geomagnetic conditions would change if it 
was concluded that the 03 March eruptive filament produced an 
Earth-directed CME.

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
03 Mar      Normal         Normal         Normal         

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
04 Mar      Normal         Normal         Normal
05 Mar      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
06 Mar      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair

COMMENT: Observed MUF's for the UT day 3 March were slightly 
above the predicted monthly values. Similar conditions are expected 
for UT day 4 March in the mid and low latitudes regions. The 
high latitude regions could experience MUF depressions associated 
with forecasted active geomagnetic conditions.

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
03 Mar    75

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Niue Island Region:
      Enhanced by 40% during local day.
      Enhanced by 45% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 20% during local night.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 15% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
Feb      64
Mar      50
Apr      51

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
04 Mar    70    Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
05 Mar    70    Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
06 Mar    60    Near predicted monthly values

COMMENT: The observed MUFs for the Australian region on UT day 
3 March were slightly higher than the predicted monthly MUF values. 
Similar HF conditions are expected for the next three days. The 
incoming solar radiation causing the ionisation has been moderately 
high over the last 7 day and this is maintaining the good HF 
propagation conditions. Losses due to recombination processes 
are at normal levels since there is no strong geomagnetic conditions 
to modify the thermospheric circulations.

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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 02 Mar
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   2.7E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.4E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.80E+06   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B1.7

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 02 Mar
Speed: 433 km/sec  Density:    5.2 p/cc  Temp:    92200 K  Bz:   5 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
-----------------------------------------------------------

Space Weather Services              email: asfc at ips.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386                         WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA       FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010                fax: +61 2 9213 8060 

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