[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 17 June 16 issued 2351 UT on 17 Jun 2016 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sat Jun 18 09:51:05 EST 2016
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/17 JUNE 2016 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 17 JUNE AND FORECAST FOR 18 JUNE - 20 JUNE
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 17 Jun: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 17 Jun: 87/30
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
18 Jun 19 Jun 20 Jun
Activity Very low to low Very low to low Very low to low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 87/30 87/30 85/27
COMMENT: Solar activity was Very Low over the last 24 hours.
The largest flare being a B4.0 from region 2555 (currently at
S09W68) around 0926UT. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed.
A partial halo CME observed in LASCO C2 imagery beginning 0748UT
on 16Jun is a backside event with no earth directed component.
The solar wind speed increased slightly over the UT day from
~~500km/s at 00UT to a peak of 656km/s at 1157UT. Solar wind is
currently ~590km/s at the time of this report and is expected
to remain slightly elevated over the next 24 hours. The north-south
component of the IMF fluctuated between +/-6nT over the whole
UT day with no significant sustained southward periods. There
are currently 3 numbered regions on the visible disc with no
observed growth in spot size or increase in magnetic complexity
seen over the last 24 hours. Solar activity is expected to be
Very Low to Low for the next 3 days.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 17 Jun: Quiet
Estimated Indices 17 Jun : A K
Australian Region 6 12222221
Cocos Island 4 1-211220
Darwin 6 12222221
Townsville 6 22222221
Learmonth 5 22212220
Alice Springs 6 12222221
Gingin 7 12223221
Camden 7 12223221
Canberra 6 11123221
Melbourne 8 12233221
Launceston 8 12233222
Hobart 7 11233221
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 17 Jun :
Macquarie Island 7 01143211
Casey 18 33322261
Mawson 24 24443354
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 17 Jun :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 3 (Quiet)
Gingin 19 (Quiet)
Canberra 23 (Quiet to unsettled)
Melbourne 26 (Quiet to unsettled)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 17 Jun : A
Fredericksburg 7
Planetary 8
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 16 Jun : A K
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 6 2111 2212
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
18 Jun 9 Quiet to Unsettled
19 Jun 6 Quiet
20 Jun 6 Quiet
COMMENT: Quiet conditions observed over the last 24 hours. Mostly
Quiet conditions are expected for the next 3 days with chance
of Unsettled periods.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
17 Jun Normal Normal Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
18 Jun Normal Normal Normal-fair
19 Jun Normal Normal Normal-fair
20 Jun Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: Periods of poor ionospheric support observed at high
latitudes over the last 24 hours. Mostly normal HF conditions
for low to mid latitudes with occasional depressed periods for
low latitudes. Similar conditions are expected for the next 3
days.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
17 Jun 34
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day.
Depressed by 25% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 25% during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
May 32
Jun 44
Jul 43
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
18 Jun 35 Near predicted monthly values
19 Jun 35 Near predicted monthly values
20 Jun 35 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Notable MUF depressions observed for Northern Australia
and Equatorial regions over the last 24 hours. MUFs near predicted
monthly values for Southern AUS/NZ regions and periods of disturbed
ionospheric support for Antarctic regions. Similar conditions
are expected for the next 3 days.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 16 Jun
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 2.4E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.3E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 9.00E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 2%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B1.1
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 16 Jun
Speed: 536 km/sec Density: 2.2 p/cc Temp: 130000 K Bz: 1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 fax: +61 2 9213 8060
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