[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 18 June 16 issued 2337 UT on 18 Jun 2016 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]

rwc rwc at ips.gov.au
Sun Jun 19 09:37:43 EST 2016


SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/18 JUNE 2016 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 18 JUNE AND FORECAST FOR 19 JUNE - 21 JUNE
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 18 Jun:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 18 Jun:  84/26


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             19 Jun             20 Jun             21 Jun
Activity     Very low to low    Very low to low    Very low to low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    80/20              80/20              80/20

COMMENT: Solar activity was Very Low over the last 24 hours. 
The largest flare being a B3.8 from region 2555 (currently at 
S08W84) around 1148UT. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed. 
The solar wind speed ranged between 550km/s to 650km/s over the 
UT day and is currently ~620km/s at the time of this report. 
Solar wind speed is expected to decrease over the next 24 hours. 
Bt, the total magnetic field of the IMF ranged between 5nT to 
3nT over the UT day. There were no significant sustained southward 
periods for Bz. There are currently 4 numbered regions on the 
visible disc and none appear to have exhibited any growth or 
increase in magnetic complexity over the last 24 hours. Solar 
activity is expected to be Very Low to Low for the next 3 days 
with only the chance of C-class flares.

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 18 Jun: Quiet

Estimated Indices 18 Jun : A   K           
   Australian Region       5   12222111
      Cocos Island         3   11221110
      Darwin               5   12222111
      Townsville           6   222221--
      Learmonth            4   12221111
      Alice Springs        5   12222111
      Gingin               6   12222221
      Camden               6   -3222111
      Canberra             5   12222111
      Melbourne            5   12222112
      Launceston           4   -----211
      Hobart               5   12222111    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 18 Jun :
      Macquarie Island     5   11233100
      Casey               10   33322222
      Mawson              28   35452245

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 18 Jun : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin              25   (Quiet to unsettled)
      Canberra            22   (Quiet to unsettled)
      Melbourne           37   (Quiet to unsettled)

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 18 Jun : A 
           Fredericksburg         8
           Planetary              8                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 17 Jun :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         7
           Planetary              8   1222 3222     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
19 Jun     5    Quiet
20 Jun     5    Quiet
21 Jun     5    Quiet

COMMENT: Quiet conditions observed over the last 24 hours. Solar 
wind speed remains elevated under the influence of a high speed 
stream from a positive polarity coronal hole, whilst Bz remains 
at ambient levels. Coronal hole effects on the solar wind are 
expected to diminish over the next 24-36hrs. Quiet conditions 
are expected for the next 3 days.

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
18 Jun      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair    

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
19 Jun      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
20 Jun      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
21 Jun      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair

COMMENT: Periods of poor ionospheric support observed at high 
latitudes over the last 24 hours. Mostly normal HF conditions 
for low to mid latitudes with occasional slightly depressed MUFs 
at times for low latitudes. Similar conditions are expected for 
the next 3 days.

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
18 Jun    37

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values.
      Depressed by 30% after local dawn.
   Niue Island Region:
      Depressed by 15% during local day.
      Depressed by 25% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Depressed by 25% during local night.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
May      32
Jun      44
Jul      43

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
19 Jun    35    Near predicted monthly values
20 Jun    35    Near predicted monthly values
21 Jun    35    Near predicted monthly values

COMMENT: Notable MUF depressions observed for Northern Australia 
and Equatorial regions over the last 24 hours. MUFs near predicted 
monthly values for Southern AUS/NZ regions and periods of disturbed 
ionospheric support for Antarctic regions. Similar conditions 
are expected for the next 3 days.

-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 17 Jun
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   2.5E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.3E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.40E+07   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 3%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B1.0

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 17 Jun
Speed: 579 km/sec  Density:    1.7 p/cc  Temp:   170000 K  Bz:   0 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
-----------------------------------------------------------

Space Weather Services              email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386                         WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA       FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010                fax: +61 2 9213 8060 

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