[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 16 June 16 issued 2330 UT on 16 Jun 2016 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Fri Jun 17 09:30:17 EST 2016
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/16 JUNE 2016 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 16 JUNE AND FORECAST FOR 17 JUNE - 19 JUNE
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 16 Jun: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 16 Jun: 88/32
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
17 Jun 18 Jun 19 Jun
Activity Very low to low Very low to low Very low to low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 88/32 88/32 88/32
COMMENT: Solar activity was very low over the last 24 hours.
No Earth-directed CMEs were observed. Solar activity is expected
to be very low to low for the next 3 days. The solar wind speed
declined slightly to around 520 km/s. The total IMF strength
varied between 4 and 7 nT. The Bz component varied between -4
and +6 nT.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 16 Jun: Quiet
Estimated Indices 16 Jun : A K
Australian Region 3 11112111
Cocos Island 3 11111111
Darwin 3 21111110
Townsville 5 --312111
Learmonth 2 ---01111
Alice Springs 2 10111110
Culgoora 7 ------22
Gingin 5 21112222
Camden 3 11112111
Canberra 2 11012100
Melbourne 4 11112211
Launceston 4 21112111
Hobart 3 11112111
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 16 Jun :
Macquarie Island 3 00013101
Casey 9 32222322
Mawson 12 33322233
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 16 Jun :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 29 (Quiet to unsettled)
Canberra 20 (Quiet)
Melbourne 32 (Quiet to unsettled)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 16 Jun : A
Fredericksburg 13
Planetary 18
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 15 Jun : A K
Fredericksburg 15
Planetary 15 5312 3312
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
17 Jun 12 Quiet to Unsettled
18 Jun 8 Quiet to Unsettled
19 Jun 8 Quiet to Unsettled
COMMENT: Magnetic conditions on 16-Jun were quiet across the
Australian region. Mostly quiet conditions are expected across
the Australian region for the next 3 days.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
16 Jun Normal-fair Normal Normal-poor
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
17 Jun Normal Normal Normal-poor
18 Jun Normal Normal Normal-fair
19 Jun Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: Periods of poor ionospheric support for HF communications
were observed at high latitudes on 16-Jun.
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
16 Jun 35
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 30% during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values to 30% depressed.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
May 32
Jun 44
Jul 43
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
17 Jun 35 Near predicted monthly values to slightly depressed
18 Jun 35 Near predicted monthly values to slightly depressed
19 Jun 35 Near predicted monthly values to slightly depressed
COMMENT: Mild to significant MUF depressions were observed at
times in northern Australia and equatorial regions on 16-Jun.
Otherwise, MUFs were near monthly predicted values to slightly
depressed. MUFs are likely to be near predicted monthly values
to slightly depressed for the next 3 days.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 15 Jun
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 3.8E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.2E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 5.40E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B1.0
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 15 Jun
Speed: 612 km/sec Density: 3.2 p/cc Temp: 310000 K Bz: 4 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
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Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
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