[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 20 July 16 issued 2330 UT on 20 Jul 2016 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Thu Jul 21 09:30:24 EST 2016
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/20 JULY 2016 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 20 JULY AND FORECAST FOR 21 JULY - 23 JULY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 20 Jul: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 20 Jul: 108/58
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
21 Jul 22 Jul 23 Jul
Activity Low Low Low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 105/54 105/54 100/48
COMMENT: Solar activity was low during 20 July UT. Active regions
2565 (now at N04W48) and 2567 (now at N06W37) produced several
C-class flares. The largest flare, C4.2, peaking at 03:17 UT
was produced by AR 2567. Another C4-class flare is in progress
at the time of the report, it is produced by AR 2565. Solar activity
is expected to be low during the next 3 UT days, 21-23 July.
There is a chance that AR 2565 and AR 2567 will produce an M-class
flare. No Earth-directed CME is detected in the available SOHO
LASCO imagery. An interplanetary shock wave was observed at 19/2302,
it is probably associated with the CME commencing on 17 July
at 1238 UT. The shock wave signature included an abrupt increase
of the total magnetic field Bt from 4 nT to 34 nT at 01:02 UT,
electron number density from 4 to 70 particles/cm3, and bulk
velocity from 320 km/s to 470 km/s. During the shock wave crossing
the Bz component varied in the range from -28 nT to 33 nT. After
the shock crossing, Bt gradually decreased 10 nT, while the solar
wind speed was increasing up to its peak value of 630 km/s at
0720 UT due to coronal hole effect, then it gradually declined
to 470 km/s. The Bz component was positive since 06:45 UT. During
the next UT day, 21 July, the solar wind is expected to be enhanced
due to the coronal hole effect.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 20 Jul: Quiet to Minor
Storm
Estimated Indices 20 Jul : A K
Australian Region 10 43322210
Cocos Island 8 42312210
Darwin 10 43312211
Townsville 13 53322221
Learmonth 8 42312210
Alice Springs 10 43312211
Norfolk Island 9 43321210
Culgoora 7 22222222
Gingin 9 43312110
Canberra 8 33322110
Launceston 10 43322210
Hobart 7 33321110
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 20 Jul :
Macquarie Island 10 34422000
Casey 13 53322211
Mawson 26 55544211
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 20 Jul :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 8 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 4 (Quiet)
Gingin 45 (Unsettled)
Canberra 30 (Quiet to unsettled)
Melbourne NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 20 Jul : A
Fredericksburg 18
Planetary 24
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 19 Jul : A K
Fredericksburg 11
Planetary 7 1100 1214
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
21 Jul 14 Unsettled to Active
22 Jul 13 Unsettled to Active
23 Jul 10 Quiet to Unsettled
COMMENT: SWS Geomagnetic Warning 30 was issued on 20 July and
is current for 20-21 Jul. A storm sudden commencement (SSC) was
observed at 19/2355, when an interplanetary shock wave has arrived
at Earth. Geomagnetic activity reached minor storm levels during
0-3 UT. Then the activity gradually declined to quiet to unsettled
levels. The planetary magnetic activity index Kp reached 5 during
0-6 UT. A recurrent negative polarity coronal hole may have an
impact on Earth during the next 3 UT days, 21-23 July. The geomagnetic
conditions are expected to be at unsettled levels with possible
active periods during 21-22 July and then at quiet to unsettled
levels on 23 July.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
20 Jul Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
21 Jul Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal-fair
22 Jul Normal Normal Normal-fair
23 Jul Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: Conditions for HF radio wave propagation were mildly
depressed to near normal in both hemispheres during 20 July UT.
Regional depressions are persisting. Conditions are expected
to be mildly depressed to near normal during the next 2 days.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
20 Jul 44
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Depressed by 20% after local dawn.
Niue Island Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Jun 31
Jul 42
Aug 40
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
21 Jul 35 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
25%
22 Jul 30 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
25%
23 Jul 30 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
25%
COMMENT: Conditions for HF radio wave propagation were mildly
depressed to near normal in the Australian region during 20 July
UT. Conditions are expected to be mostly normal and mildly depressed
during the next 2 days.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 19 Jul
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 5.7E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.3E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 3.40E+08 (moderate fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:20%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B2.6
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 19 Jul
Speed: 338 km/sec Density: 2.4 p/cc Temp: 36100 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 fax: +61 2 9213 8060
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