[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 21 July 16 issued 2330 UT on 21 Jul 2016 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Fri Jul 22 09:30:20 EST 2016
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/21 JULY 2016 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 21 JULY AND FORECAST FOR 22 JULY - 24 JULY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 21 Jul: Moderate
Flares Max Fadeout Freq. Sectors
M1.2 0046UT possible lower West Pacific
C9.0 0151UT probable lower West Pacific
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 21 Jul: 100/48
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
22 Jul 23 Jul 24 Jul
Activity Moderate Moderate Moderate
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 100/48 100/48 95/41
COMMENT: Solar activity was Moderate due to two M-class flares
(M1.2 and M.1.0, peaking at 0046 UT and 0149 UT, respectively)
produced by active region 2567. Yesterday this region also produced
two C-class flares, which peaked at 2217 UT and 2351 UT and are
probably associated with CMEs propagating in the northeast and
southwest directions, with onset times being in the interval
2124-2312 UT in accordance with CACTUS detections. These CMEs
may have geoeffective components; further analysis is pending.
Solar activity is expected to be Low to Moderate during the next
3 UT days, 22-24 July, due to a chance that AR 2565 and AR 2567
will produce relatively weak M-class flares. During 21 July the
interplanetary magnetic field Bt was almost constant, 8-10 nT,
while its Bz component was positive up to 2125 UT, then it has
changed its sign and reached values -2 nT at 22:00 UT. The solar
wind speed gradually declined from 460 km/s to 410 km/s due to
waning coronal hole effect. During the next UT day, 22 July,
the solar wind is expected to continue approaching its background
levels.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 21 Jul: Quiet
Estimated Indices 21 Jul : A K
Australian Region 3 11111201
Cocos Island 2 0-11120-
Darwin 3 1111120-
Townsville 3 2111120-
Learmonth 1 00100201
Alice Springs 2 1011120-
Norfolk Island 2 11110101
Culgoora 7 22222222
Gingin 1 0011010-
Canberra 0 0010010-
Launceston 3 11111201
Hobart 1 10100100
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 21 Jul :
Macquarie Island 0 0000000-
Casey 4 1221111-
Mawson 1 0111010-
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 21 Jul :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Melbourne NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 21 Jul : A
Fredericksburg 7
Planetary 8
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 20 Jul : A K
Fredericksburg 19
Planetary 21 5542 3322
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
22 Jul 13 Quiet to Unsettled
23 Jul 10 Quiet to Unsettled
24 Jul 10 Quiet to Unsettled
COMMENT: SWS Geomagnetic Warning 29 was issued on 19 July and
is current for 20-22 Jul. Geomagnetic conditions were quiet during
21 July. Geomagnetic conditions are expected to be at quiet to
unsettled levels with possible active periods during 22-24 July
due to waning coronal hole effects.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
21 Jul Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
22 Jul Normal Normal-fair Normal-fair
23 Jul Normal Normal-fair Normal-fair
24 Jul Normal Normal-fair Normal-fair
COMMENT: Conditions for HF radio wave propagation were mildly
depressed to near normal in both hemispheres during 21 July UT.
Regional depressions are persisting. Sometimes strong depressions
were observed predominately in the northern hemisphere. Conditions
are expected to be mildly depressed to near normal during the
next 2 days.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
21 Jul 29
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 30% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day.
Depressed by 20% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day.
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 20% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Jun 31
Jul 42
Aug 40
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
22 Jul 30 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
25%
23 Jul 30 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
25%
24 Jul 30 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
25%
COMMENT: Conditions for HF radio wave propagation were mildly
depressed to near normal in the Australian region during 21 July
UT. Conditions are expected to be mostly normal or mildly depressed
during the next 2 days.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 20 Jul
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 3.5E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.2E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 9.70E+05 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B2.8
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 20 Jul
Speed: 525 km/sec Density: 3.7 p/cc Temp: 57000 K Bz: 4 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 fax: +61 2 9213 8060
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