[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 19 July 16 issued 2335 UT on 19 Jul 2016 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Wed Jul 20 09:35:50 EST 2016
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/19 JULY 2016 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 19 JULY AND FORECAST FOR 20 JULY - 22 JULY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:** YELLOW ** ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 19 Jul: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 19 Jul: 101/49
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
20 Jul 21 Jul 22 Jul
Activity Low Low Low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 100/48 100/48 100/48
COMMENT: Solar activity was low during 19 July UT. AR 2565 (now
at N03W23) produced the largest C4.4 flare peaking at 11:53 UT.
Solar activity is expected to be low during the next 3 UT days,
20-22 July. There is a chance that AR 2565 and AR 2567 will produce
an M-class flare. SOHO LASCO imagery recorded a faint partial
halo CME commencing on 17 July at 1238 UT. It may contain a geoeffective
component that may arrive at Earth on 20-21 July. The solar wind
speed declined from about 350 km/s to 330 km/s during 19 July.
The magnitude of the IMF varied in the range 3-5 nT. Its Bz component
was fluctuating in the range from -3 nT to +4 nT. Early on 20
July the solar wind parameters are expected to be in the vicinity
of their ambient values and then the solar wind speed may start
increasing due to a coronal hole effect. ACE EPAM data indicates
an energetic ion enhancement event beginning 19/0635UT, which
can be a precursor to increased geomagnetic activity over next
24-36 hours.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 19 Jul: Quiet
Estimated Indices 19 Jul : A K
Australian Region 2 11001200
Cocos Island 0 01000100
Darwin 1 11001101
Townsville 2 11001200
Learmonth 1 10000200
Alice Springs 1 01001200
Norfolk Island 2 21001100
Culgoora 7 22222222
Gingin 1 10000200
Canberra 1 01001200
Launceston 1 01001200
Hobart 1 00001200
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 19 Jul :
Macquarie Island 0 00000100
Casey 4 12111300
Mawson 6 31011104
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 19 Jul :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Melbourne NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 19 Jul : A
Fredericksburg 4
Planetary 5
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 18 Jul : A K
Fredericksburg 4
Planetary 5 1111 1222
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
20 Jul 17 Active to Minor Storm
21 Jul 14 Unsettled to Active
22 Jul 13 Unsettled to Active
COMMENT: Geomagnetic conditions were quiet during 19 July UT.
The planetary magnetic activity index Kp reached 1 and Australian
region K indices varied between 0 and 2. A recurrent negative
polarity coronal hole may have an impact on Earth during the
next 3 UT days, 20-21 July. The CME observed on 17 July may arrive
at Earth on 20 July. These two factors are expected to result
in increased geomagnetic activity up to Minor Storm levels.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
19 Jul Normal Normal Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
20 Jul Normal Normal Normal-fair
21 Jul Normal Normal Normal-fair
22 Jul Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: Conditions for HF radio wave propagation were mildly
depressed to near normal in both hemispheres during 19 July UT.
Regional depressions are persisting. Conditions are expected
to be mildly depressed to near normal during the next 2 days.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
19 Jul 27
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day.
Depressed by 30% during local night.
Depressed by 30% after local dawn.
Niue Island Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day.
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 20% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Enhanced by 15% over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Jun 31
Jul 42
Aug 40
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
20 Jul 35 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
25%
21 Jul 30 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
25%
22 Jul 30 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
25%
COMMENT: Conditions for HF radio wave propagation were mildly
depressed to near normal in the Australian region during 19 July
UT. Conditions are expected to be mostly normal and mildly depressed
during the next 2 days.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 18 Jul
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 3.0E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.3E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.90E+08 (moderate fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:18%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B2.4
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 18 Jul
Speed: 406 km/sec Density: 2.5 p/cc Temp: 48100 K Bz: -1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
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