[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 18 July 16 issued 2330 UT on 18 Jul 2016 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Tue Jul 19 09:30:19 EST 2016
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/18 JULY 2016 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 18 JULY AND FORECAST FOR 19 JULY - 21 JULY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 18 Jul: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 18 Jul: 107/57
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
19 Jul 20 Jul 21 Jul
Activity Low Low Low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 105/54 105/54 100/48
COMMENT: Solar activity was low during 18 July UT. Active Regions
2565 and 2569 produced B- and C-class flares. AR 2565 produced
the largest C4.4 flare peaking at 08:23 UT (N06W07). AR 2565
and 2567 are expected to produce C-class flares. There is a chance
that AR 2565 will produce an M-class flare. SOHO LASCO imagery
recorded a faint partial halo CME commencing on 17 July at 1238
UT. It may contain a geoeffective component that may arrive at
Earth on 21-22 July. The solar wind speed declined from about
400 km/s to 350 km/s during 18 July. The magnitude of the IMF
declined from 5 nT to 2 nT. Its Bz component was fluctuating
in the range -4 nT to +4 nT. On 19 July the solar wind parameters
are expected to be in the vicinity of their ambient values. Late
on 19 July the solar wind speed may start increasing due to a
coronal hole effect.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 18 Jul: Quiet
Estimated Indices 18 Jul : A K
Australian Region 1 11110000
Cocos Island 1 11100000
Darwin 1 12100000
Townsville 2 21110001
Learmonth 0 01100000
Alice Springs 0 01100000
Norfolk Island 0 11000000
Culgoora 7 22222222
Gingin 1 01210000
Canberra 1 11110000
Launceston 1 11110000
Hobart 1 11110000
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 18 Jul :
Macquarie Island 0 00010000
Casey 4 23210100
Mawson 6 22222003
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 18 Jul :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 13 (Quiet)
Canberra 9 (Quiet)
Melbourne NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 18 Jul : A
Fredericksburg 4
Planetary 4
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 17 Jul : A K
Fredericksburg 10
Planetary 6 2211 1213
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
19 Jul 6 Quiet
20 Jul 13 Quiet to Unsettled
21 Jul 14 Unsettled to Active
COMMENT: Geomagnetic conditions were quiet during 18 July UT.
The planetary magnetic activity index Kp reached 1 and Australian
region K indices varied between 0 and 2. A recurrent negative
polarity coronal hole may have an impact on Earth in about 1
day, resulting in increased geomagnetic activity up to Unsettled
levels with Active periods.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
18 Jul Normal Normal Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
19 Jul Normal Normal Normal-fair
20 Jul Normal Normal Normal-fair
21 Jul Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: Conditions for HF radio wave propagation were mildly
depressed to near normal in both hemispheres during 18 July UT.
Regional depressions are persisting. Conditions are expected
to be mildly depressed to near normal during the next 2 days.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
18 Jul 38
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Enhanced by 20% during local day.
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 20% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 20% during local day.
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Jun 31
Jul 42
Aug 40
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
19 Jul 35 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
20%
20 Jul 35 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
25%
21 Jul 30 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
25%
COMMENT: Conditions for HF radio wave propagation were mildly
depressed to near normal in the Australian region during 18 July
UT. Conditions are expected to be mostly normal and mildly depressed
during the next 2 days.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 17 Jul
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 3.6E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.3E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.10E+08 (moderate fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:16%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B3.4
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 17 Jul
Speed: 455 km/sec Density: 3.2 p/cc Temp: 55600 K Bz: -1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 fax: +61 2 9213 8060
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