[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 17 July 16 issued 2330 UT on 17 Jul 2016 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]

Regional Warning Centre rwc at ips.gov.au
Mon Jul 18 09:30:24 EST 2016


SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/17 JULY 2016 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 17 JULY AND FORECAST FOR 18 JULY - 20 JULY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 17 Jul:  Low

Flares: C class flares

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 17 Jul: 105/54


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             18 Jul             19 Jul             20 Jul
Activity     Low                Low                Low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN   105/54             105/54             105/54

COMMENT: Solar activity was low during 17 July UT. Active Regions 
2567 and 2565 produced C class X ray flares. AR 2567 produced 
the largest flare of the day prior to 23 UT, a C1.4 event peaking 
at 08:03 UT (N07E14). A larger C class flare is in progress at 
the time of this report, a ribbon flare in H alpha images. AR 
2567 will continue to produce C class flares and there is a small 
chance it will produce an M class flare. AR 2567 and 2565 are 
crossing the solar meridian today and the combined region is 
very active in SDO AIA 131 nm images. SOHO LASCO coronograms 
recorded a faint partial halo CME leaving the Sun commencing 
during 12 UT. The strongest component of the CME was directed 
toward the east. The solar wind speed declined from about 500 
km/s to below 450 km/s during 17 July. The solar wind density 
rose from about 2 /cm3 to about 4-6 /cm3. The magnitude of the 
IMF has been fluctuating between about 2 nT and 5 nT and the 
Bz component has been fluctuating in the range -5 nT and +3 nT.

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 17 Jul: Quiet

Estimated Indices 17 Jul : A   K           
   Australian Region       3   11112111
      Cocos Island         3   11211101
      Darwin               3   21102111
      Townsville           5   22112112
      Learmonth            2   11102101
      Alice Springs        4   22112111
      Norfolk Island       3   11121011
      Culgoora             7   22222222
      Gingin               4   11112211
      Canberra             4   12121111
      Launceston           5   22122211
      Hobart               4   11122111    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 17 Jul :
      Macquarie Island     3   10132100
      Casey                8   33221222
      Mawson              13   34323223

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 17 Jul : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin               6   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)
      Melbourne           NA

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 17 Jul : A 
           Fredericksburg         7
           Planetary              6                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 16 Jul :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         8
           Planetary              8   3111 3212     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
18 Jul     5    Quiet
19 Jul     6    Quiet
20 Jul    10    Quiet to Unsettled

COMMENT: Geomagnetic conditions were quiet during 17 July UT. 
The planetary magnetic activity index Kp reached 2 and Australian 
region K indices reached 1 to 2. A negative polarity coronal 
hole may have a impact on Earth in about 2 days.

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
17 Jul      Normal         Normal         Normal         

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
18 Jul      Normal         Normal         Normal
19 Jul      Normal         Normal         Normal
20 Jul      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair

COMMENT: Conditions for HF radio wave propagation were mildly 
depressed to near normal in both hemispheres during 17 July UT. 
Regional depressions are persisting. Conditions are expected 
to be mildly depressed to near normal during the next 2 days.

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
17 Jul    34

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Depressed by 15% during local day.
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Depressed by 15% during local day.
      Depressed by 20% during local night.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Depressed by 15% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
Jun      31
Jul      42
Aug      40

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
18 Jul    35    Near predicted monthly values
19 Jul    35    Near predicted monthly values
20 Jul    35    Near predicted monthly values

COMMENT: Conditions for HF radio wave propagation were mildly 
depressed to near normal in the Australian region during 17 July 
UT. The preliminary daily T index was only 19 for Cocos Island 
and 21 for Darwin. Sporadic E layers persisted above Cocos Island 
last night local time. Conditions are expected to be mostly near 
normal during the next 2 days.

-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 16 Jul
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   6.9E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.2E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.50E+08   (moderate fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:13%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B3.5

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 16 Jul
Speed: 568 km/sec  Density:    2.2 p/cc  Temp:   114000 K  Bz:   0 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
-----------------------------------------------------------

Space Weather Services              email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386                         WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA       FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010                fax: +61 2 9213 8060 

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