[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 12 July 16 issued 2330 UT on 12 Jul 2016 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]

Regional Warning Centre rwc at ips.gov.au
Wed Jul 13 09:30:22 EST 2016


SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/12 JULY 2016 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 12 JULY AND FORECAST FOR 13 JULY - 15 JULY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 12 Jul:  Very low

Flares: None

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 12 Jul:  92/37


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             13 Jul             14 Jul             15 Jul
Activity     Very low to low    Very low to low    Very low to low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    94/40              94/40              94/40

COMMENT: Solar activity was very low during 12 July UT and it 
is expected to remain very low to low during the next 2 days. 
AR 2564 may produce a C-class flare. There are currently 4 numbered 
sunspot regions on the solar disk, all of them magnetically stable. 
There are no Earthward directed CMEs. A solar wind disturbance 
ahead of fast wind emanating from Coronal Hole 748 arrived at 
Earth late on 11 July. The solar wind speed increased from below 
500 km/s to above 600 km/s during 12 July. The solar wind speed 
may moderate during 13 July and then increase again during 14 
July due to the arrival of fast wind emanating from the next 
coronal hole, CH 746. IMF Bz southward conditions affected Earth 
until about 08 UT on 12 July. The Bz component reached a minimum 
value of -8 nT at about 06 UT. The magnitude of the IMF is currently 
about 6 nT and Bz has been fluctuating in the range -5 nT to 
+5 nT since 09 UT.

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 12 Jul: Quiet to Unsettled

Estimated Indices 12 Jul : A   K           
   Australian Region      10   23333122
      Cocos Island         5   12222112
      Darwin               8   22333111
      Townsville          10   23333212
      Learmonth            8   22323112
      Alice Springs       10   23333112
      Norfolk Island       8   23332111
      Culgoora             9   22332222
      Gingin              11   23333222
      Canberra            10   13333122
      Melbourne           12   23433122
      Launceston          12   23433222
      Hobart              12   23433122    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 12 Jul :
      Macquarie Island    23   24464222
      Casey               11   33332222
      Mawson              55   66543257

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 12 Jul : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           6   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        2   (Quiet)
      Gingin               6   (Quiet)
      Canberra            23   (Quiet to unsettled)
      Melbourne           34   (Quiet to unsettled)

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 12 Jul : A 
           Fredericksburg        18
           Planetary             25                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 11 Jul :  A   K
           Fredericksburg        11
           Planetary             11   3312 3234     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
13 Jul    15    Unsettled to Active
14 Jul    15    Unsettled to Active
15 Jul    12    Unsettled

COMMENT: Geomagnetic conditions reached minor storm levels during 
12 July UT due to the arrival of a solar wind disturbance ahead 
of fast wind emanating from Coronal Hole 748. The planetary magnetic 
index Kp peaked at 5 during 03 to 09 UT. The Australian region 
was located on the dayside during this storm. Local K indices 
peaked at 3 and the regional Dst index decreased to about -68 
nT during 04 UT and 09 UT. Geomagnetic conditions are expected 
to be unsettled to active during the next 2 days. They may reach 
minor storm levels during 14 July depending on the orientation 
of Bz in the disturbance ahead of fast flows emanating from CH 
746.

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
12 Jul      Normal         Normal         Normal         

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
13 Jul      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
14 Jul      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
15 Jul      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair

COMMENT: Conditions for HF radio wave propagation were mildly 
depressed to near normal in the Southern Hemisphere and near 
normal in the Northern Hemisphere during 11-12 July UT. Similar 
conditions are expected today, 13 July UT.

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
12 Jul    37

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Depressed by 15% during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Depressed by 20% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Depressed by 15% during local night.
      Depressed by 20% after local dawn.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
Jun      31
Jul      42
Aug      40

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
13 Jul    35    Near predicted monthly values
14 Jul    35    Near predicted monthly values
15 Jul    35    Near predicted monthly values

COMMENT: Conditions for HF radio wave propagation were mildly 
depressed to near normal throughout the Australian region during 
12 July. Similar conditions are expected for the next 2 days. 
Spread F conditions are becoming more frequent during the local 
night hours as the Sun declines towards solar minimum.

-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 11 Jul
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   2.4E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.2E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.10E+08   (moderate fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:11%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B2.0

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 11 Jul
Speed: 504 km/sec  Density:    2.4 p/cc  Temp:   132000 K  Bz:   0 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
-----------------------------------------------------------

Space Weather Services              email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386                         WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA       FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010                fax: +61 2 9213 8060 

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