[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 11 July 16 issued 0035 UT on 12 Jul 2016 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Tue Jul 12 10:35:08 EST 2016
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/11 JULY 2016 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 11 JULY AND FORECAST FOR 12 JULY - 14 JULY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 11 Jul: Very low
Flares: B class flare
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 11 Jul: 95/41
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
12 Jul 13 Jul 14 Jul
Activity Very low to low Very low to low Very low to low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 95/41 95/41 95/41
COMMENT: Active Region 2564 (N8E42) produced the largest flare
during 11 July UT, a B9.4 event peaking at 21:33 UT. Solar activity
was very low during 11 July and it is expected to remain very
low to low during the next 2 days. A few C-class flares may occur.
There are no Earthward directed CMEs. Coronal Hole 748 has rotated
into a geoeffective position and may enhance the solar wind speed
at Earth today, 12 July UT. A large northern polar coronal hole
connects to CH 746 and has rotated across the central meridian.
It may lead to further enhancements in the solar wind later this
week. The solar wind speed declined from about 550 km/s to about
480 km/s during 11 July UT. The magnitude of the IMF has been
about 5 nT and Bz has been fluctuating in the range -5 nT to
+5 nT.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 11 Jul: Quiet to Unsettled
Estimated Indices 11 Jul : A K
Australian Region 7 22123122
Cocos Island 4 12112111
Darwin 5 22122121
Townsville 7 22123122
Learmonth 7 22223122
Alice Springs 6 22123121
Norfolk Island 6 22122122
Gingin 8 22113232
Camden 6 22122122
Canberra 6 22122122
Melbourne 6 22122122
Launceston 8 22123232
Hobart 7 22123122
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 11 Jul :
Macquarie Island 8 11034122
Casey 11 44222122
Mawson 36 45424456
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 11 Jul :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 18 (Quiet)
Canberra 17 (Quiet)
Melbourne 65 (Active)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 11 Jul : A
Fredericksburg 12
Planetary 13
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 10 Jul : A K
Fredericksburg 11
Planetary 9 3223 2122
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
12 Jul 12 Unsettled
13 Jul 12 Unsettled
14 Jul 12 Unsettled
COMMENT: SWS Geomagnetic Warning 28 was issued on 10 July and
is current for 11-12 Jul UT. Geomagnetic conditions were quiet to
unsettled during 11 July. They are expected to be mostly unsettled
during the next 3 days. There may be brief active periods due
to the arrival of high speed solar wind streams and weak Bz southward
conditions. The planetary magnetic index Kp may reach 4 later
today, 12 July.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
11 Jul Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
12 Jul Normal Normal Normal-fair
13 Jul Normal Normal Normal-fair
14 Jul Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: Conditions for HF radio wave propagation are expected
to remain mildly depressed in the Southern and Northern Hemispheres
today, 12 July UT. They are expected to trend back towards near
predicted monthly values during 12-14 July.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
11 Jul 24
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 30% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 35% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 25% during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Jun 31
Jul 42
Aug 40
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
12 Jul 30 Mildly depressed
13 Jul 30 Mildly depressed
14 Jul 35 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: SWS HF Communications Warning 32 was issued on 9 July
and is current for 10-12 Jul UT. Conditions for HF radio wave propagation
were mildly depressed throughout the Australian region during
11 July. The preliminary daily T index for Niue and Norfolk Island
was only 20. There were strong spread F conditions at Darwin
last night. An ionospheric trough occurred above Hobart early
this morning. MUFs are expected to be depressed by about 10%-30%
throughout the Australian region today.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 10 Jul
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 3.0E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.2E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.40E+08 (moderate fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:13%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B2.5
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 10 Jul
Speed: 579 km/sec Density: 2.0 p/cc Temp: 159000 K Bz: 1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 fax: +61 2 9213 8060
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